Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Trainer form is one of those things to which I always pay attention. It doesn’t often lead directly to a decision about which horse to back but it is certainly a useful part of the context for any race and it also helps, when looking at a horse’s past performances, if you can remember whether the yard was going well or poorly at the time of each race.
Today’s novice handicap chase at Musselburgh is an example of a race where trainer form really does send you in a clear direction, I feel. The favourite, as I type, is The Backup Plan from Donald McCain’s stable, which fared reasonably well in August and September but is 2/48 in British jump races since the start of October. The Backup Plan won his last two races but has not been seen since September.
Against him is Present Flight from Lucinda Russell’s yard, which is quite literally flying and on fire. Russell’s treble at Musselburgh yesterday gave her nine winners in the past fortnight. She’s 12/51 since the start of October, making her strike-rate in that time 24% against 4% for McCain.
Present Flight (2.30) is a 9-4 shot for this five-runner race, which looks fine to me. He won easily on his chasing debut (also his handicap debut) at Kelso last month, scoring by 11 lengths from a horse that has won since. Present Flight was outpaced on a drop back in trip next time but the return to three miles should help here and it’s possible that that outing came too soon, just six days after Kelso.
Also on the subject of trainer trends, I noticed yesterday that the North Yorkshire-based Mark Walford has a 25% strike-rate with chasers over his three seasons with a license. That’s based on a small but respectable sample of 13 wins from 52 runs and his percentage has improved each season.
You’d expect any trainer to have a better strike-rate with their chasers than their hurdlers, just because field sizes are smaller, but it’s always interesting to me when the difference between the two is especially great and 25% is an excellent record.
Walford’s Kodicil (3.30) took a step forward on his fourth try over fences when scoring at Uttoxeter in September and he will again benefit from the decent surface that may have helped him that day. I hope he will have more to offer with 8lb more on his back in this better race. He’s 11-2.
I’ll just throw in a couple of others that are by no means obvious fancies but look overpriced to me. Cool Baranca (2.00) is a 10-time winner over hurdles on offer at 25-1, despite the most recent of those wins having been by 11 lengths in June, since when she has had two explicable defeats over hurdles. I think she may now be at an age when this two and a half miles will help.
A GoingStick reading of 5.5 at Fontwell suggests to me that the ground may be even more testing than an official description of Soft would imply. That gives me interest in Banks Road (3.40), whose only career success was on heavy at Plumpton last December, when he was fresh from a five-month break. Here he is, fresh again and 1lb below the mark he had that day. He might get lapped but it’s a rotten race that could fall into his lap and he’s 10-1.
Tipping competition, day five
Our winners so far:
Monday
Brother Tedd 11-8
Dubawi Island 7-1
Dragon City 9-2
Tuesday
Vibrato Valtat 5-2
Saroque 10-1
Brave Deed 7-1
Wednesday
Rita’s Boy 12-1
Leith Hill Legasi 11-4
Missed Call 10-1
Thursday
Sands Cove 8-1
Milord 9-2
Bancnuanaheireann 9-1
And our leader is …
Bacciodilupo +23.50
… who improved his score with Milord but found Mulldog (+23.25) right up behind him, having picked Milord and Bancnuanaheireann. Other good scores: NoddyBankie +15.88, PHILYERBOOTS +14.88, Bocuma_TJ +14.88, GForce1 +13.88, 15244 +13.50, BearRides +13.50, BearRides +13.50, jakebuckfast +12, yasmin11 +11.88, kingklynch +11.50, Bonzodrongo +10, Copshaw +9.88, sandiuk +9.38, eddiesgottheblues +8.50, wiggy12 +8, cerises +7.25, donlewis +7.25.
For today’s thrilling climax, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.30 Musselburgh, 5.40 Chelmsford, 6.40 Chelmsford.
This week’s prize is a copy of Beckhampton, The Men And Horses of a Great Racing Stable, Paul Mathieu’s newly published book about the Wiltshire stable now home to Roger Charlton, which has housed some 40 Classic winners in its long and successful history. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -12.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
Good luck!
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