Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
How interesting to see the tug of love developing over Frankie Dettori in advance of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at next month’s Royal Ascot. Connections of California Chrome, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, have engaged him to ride their horse in a gallop at the track next week, doubtless in hopes of having him climb aboard again on the big day. Now it emerges that those close to the New Zealand raider Criterion have a “plan” for Dettori to ride their horse in the same race.
California Chrome is a 12-1 shot, while Criterion is 16-1, so the betting doesn’t help Dettori much, if he has to make a choice. Oh and there’s Western Hymn, last night’s Brigadier Gerard winner, at 14-1, another horse he could probably climb aboard if he wished.
And perhaps we should mention Ectot, owned by Dettori’s employers, Al Shaqab, also at 14-1. He’s the ride of Gregory Benoist but perhaps Dettori will reflect, in a quiet moment, on the wisdom of possibly beating Ectot by a nose after delivering the ride of the century on one of the others. Or perhaps that would make his point for him, that he should be riding all their horses.
At any rate, it’s better to be wanted than not and this situation serves to illustrate Dettori’s return to popularity since the darkest days of two years ago when he returned from a drugs ban to find all the best jobs were taken. He ended 2013 with 16 winners in Britain at a strike-rate of 8%.
Now 44, he’s already had more winners this year and salted away almost as much prize money as for the whole of that year, and he’s got the ride on the Derby favourite to come next week. It must be nice to be back in fashion.
I generally expect Luca Cumani’s horses to step up in trip as they get older but he’s going the other way with Saigon City (3.35) at Newmarket today and this five-year-old is interesting at 4-1. He ran well without winning last year in three runs on ground that probably had too much give.
He got fast ground on his Ascot reappearance, stepped down to a mile for an apprentice race last month, and looked like winning until hanging right across the track in the straight, as the odd horse seems to do there. He was still only beaten a length and a half.
Now he’s stepped down again to seven furlongs and will benefit from the strength and tactical nous of Adam Kirby, returning to his saddle. There may be some rain in the area this morning, which could be dangerous for his chance on watered ground, but I have hope that the going will still ride on the fast side.
I haven’t had much luck with my Godolphin picks in this space of late but I like Space Age (4.10) in the following handicap. He didn’t get much of a run in the London Gold Cup but stayed on strongly on that first start at 10 furlongs and can do better off the same mark in this lesser contest. He’s 9-4.
You can get 12-1 about Lady Poppy (8.10) at Catterick tonight, which isn’t bad. She’s still fairly treated on her course and distance win from last month and I’ve put a line through her subsequent flop on soft ground.
A handful of others in this race like to force the pace, so things might work out well for a horse like her that can track the leaders and finish strongly.
Tipping competition, day four
Our winners so far:
Tuesday
Excilly 10-1
Aprovado 5-2
Minnie Milan 5-2
Wednesday
Steel Train 20-1
Van Mildert 9-1
Exchequer 11-4
Thursday
Vent De Force 6-4
Western Hymn 11-4
Jacob Black 4-1
And our leader is …
diegoisgod +15.75
… who edged ahead by picking Western Hymn, while melonk (+14.50) had Vent De Force. Other good scores: GForce1 +10.75, waltersobchak +5.75, 72luca +5.75, asem24 +2, 15244 +1.75, factormax +1.
ATTENTION GFORCE1! We have contacted you by email re your prize from last week. Do please act on the email so we can post your tickets to you.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.35 Newmarket, 3.45 Newcastle, 5.15 Newmarket.
This week’s prize is a £25 bet on the Derby, kindly offered by those sporting chaps at Boylesports.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
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