10.45am Uxizandre on course for Sier de Grugy clash
Tony Paley: Trainer Alan King has Uxizandre on alert for a potential clash with Sire De Grugy in next week’s Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on Saturday week.
Uxizandre won the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham earlier in the season but failed to handle heavy ground when well beaten at Leopardstown over Christmas.
King said on his Betway blog: “He’s just done his first bit of work since Leopardstown at Christmas and could head to Newbury next weekend for the Game Spirit if the ground isn’t soft or worse. We got away with conditions at Cheltenham in November as, even though it was soft, he could get through it.
“However, the very deep ground at Leopardstown was simply too holding for him and he hated it. If the ground softens at Newbury we are likely to head straight to Cheltenham for the Champion Chase or the Ryanair Chase - like Balder Succes, he holds entries for both races and we’ll keep our options open.”
Balder Succes was beaten in his first three starts this season but stepped up to two and a half miles at Kempton earlier this month, he bounced back to winning form and King now plans to stick at a longer distance next time.
He said: “We stepped Balder Succes up to two and a half miles earlier in the month at Kempton and that seems to have done his confidence the world of good.
“The plan is to stick to the same trip for the time being and head to Ascot in a couple of weeks for the Ascot Chase [over two miles and five furlongs].
“Ascot will tell us whether we’ll head to Cheltenham for the Ryanair Chase or drop back for the Champion Chase and I’m certainly not ruling anything out at this stage.”
Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
What do people want from a tipster? The question is prompted by today’s second race at Chepstow, in which Sail By The Sea is on offer at 1-7, while everything else is 11-1 or bigger.
I have sometimes enjoyed backing an odds-on shot that I believed to be more or less a sure thing but, to my mind, there is simply no point in backing a horse at 1-7. Your profit margin is 14%, assuming everything goes right and, for a recreational gambler, which most of us are, it will feel just like being handed your stake back.
That’s if you’re lucky. How stupid do you feel if you end up losing your stake in pursuit of a sum you would barely have noticed? If you’re betting at odds like this, you can be right seven times in a row, then wrong once and find yourself back to square one. Where is the joy in it?
So, when I was looking at this race yesterday, I decided not to tip Sail By The Sea. Nobody needs to be told he is the most likely winner. Instead, I looked for the most likely alternative and came up with All But Grey (1.50), who might even be worth a small interest at 11-1.
If this were a Flat race, Sail By The Sea really might be unopposable, but fences can get in the way. I don’t say I wish for that to happen but it is a realistic possibility. Just a single bad mistake can cause a horse to run stones below its usual level of form and Sail By The Sea’s fans have already had one reverse, when he was third of four as favourite for his chasing debut, admittedly against two fair animals.
There is less strength to today’s race, which means less pressure may be applied to Sail By The Sea and of course that should help. Still, All But Grey is unexposed for a horse of his age and he managed to win a Taunton novice hurdle on heavy ground at this time last year, despite starting at similar odds to those now available. He was plainly in need of his reappearance over hurdles last month and may be better yet over fences, considering he is a points winner.
If every tipster took the same approach to these races, there would be no tips at all for Sail By The Sea in the Racing Post’s selection box. That would look odd, considering his status as hot favourite. But I submit that it might be more useful than what we actually have, which is everyone else lining up behind the jolly and only contrary me looking elsewhere.
A more realistic betting proposition is Bandit Country (3.30) in the handicap hurdle. He was a bit disappointing on his handicap debut last month but Jonjo O’Neill’s runners were in mid-slump at that point and I feel sure he will prove better in time. The drop back in trip may also help and 9-2 is acceptable.
At Lingfield, I fancy Steady Major (3.10) at 2-1. He was a bit unlucky to go down by a neck here recently when stepped up dramatically in trip and I think that even his revised mark (up 4lb) is very fair. I’d expect to see more positive tactics this time, although the presence in the saddle of Jamie Spencer means that this cannot be taken as read.
BoyleSports Tipping Competition, day five
Our winners so far:
Monday
Bush Beauty 12-1
Until Winning 2-1
Brunette’sonly 100-30
Tuesday
Sun Wild Life 7-2
Stradater 9-1
Winning Spark 8-1
Wednesday
Algernon Pazham 3-1
Trojan Rocket 20-1
Misu Pete 25-1
Thursday
Saint Raph 6-1
Shammick Boy 16-1
Vercingetorix 6-4
And our leader is. . .
Templegate +30
. . . who already had a handy lead before picking Saint Raph. But eight people had Shammick Boy, so there are still a good few in contention. Other good scores: spiller +18.83, diegoisgod +16, GForce1 +15.83, chris1623 +11.83, Lindsey6677 +11.83, PHILYERBOOTS +9.50, Ellandback +9, jakebuckfast +8, ahlookyaknow +7.50.
For today’s thrilling climax, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.30 Chepstow, 4.05 Chepstow, 7.15 Wolverhampton.
This week’s prize, kindly offered by those sporting fellas at BoyleSports, is a £25 ante-post bet on a race of your choosing at the Cheltenham Festival (provided it’s one of the 15 on which BoyleSports are taking bets just now). The bet must be placed by Saturday 7 February.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -12.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
