Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
It’s a quiet midweek day in January, so we should probably just have a little look around in case Barney Curley might be sneaking up on somebody. There are at least four horses running today that could, in some way, be linked to him and one of them has been the subject of market interest.
They are:
i) Angels Above (1.45 Lingfield), trained by John Butler, formerly employed by Curley. He’s been well beaten in two starts so far and is trading at double-figure odds.
ii) Ecliptic Sunrise (2.50 Lingfield), trained by Des Donovan, formerly employed by Curley. She’s a maiden after 13 starts but went close last time and is 7-2 today.
iii) Giant Sequoia (3.25 Lingfield), also trained by Donovan and old enough to have been trained by Curley himself for a couple of years. This beast is easily good enough to win off his present low rating but his form is rather in and out. He was 14-1 first thing this morning but is now no bigger than 11-2.
iv) Eye Of The Tiger (8.35 Dundalk), formerly owned and trained by Curley. This beast was with Donovan last January, when he was one of the four horses who were well backed and won a fortune in a coup with which Curley later admitted he had been involved. Eye Of The Tiger is now 21lb higher in the handicap than he was that day but would still be well in on his very best form (from almost five years ago). He’s based in Ireland with Johnny Murtagh now. You can get 4-1, a point shorter than he was when betting started.
It’s easy to get spooked by several horses with Curley links running on the same day. I’d say there have been more spoofs than actual coups in these circumstances. But keep your eyes open.
My focus is on the two good jumps cards, especially Doncaster, where Nicky Henderson may have a good day. Potentially the really big name there is Josses Hill in the novice chase at 1pm. I think he’s the most likely winner but I shan’t be taking 1-2, thank you.
Henderson’s lack of success over fences has been one of the features of the season so far. In the past six months, his horses have won over fences a grand total of four times from 48 runs (8%). It is a staggering statistic for such a high profile yard and the more surprising when you consider that his hurdles record in that time is 33 wins from 129 runs (26%).
So it’s not as though his horses are generally unhealthy or out of form. In hurdles races, his form is nothing short of excellent. What on earth is going on with his chasers?
This is the yard of Bobs Worth, Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Captain Conan, Finian’s Rainbow, Ma Filleule, Triolo D’Alene and Long Run. Most of those have had recent problems, of course, and I mention them only to give some indication of the weight of steeplechasing talent which Henderson has brought through in recent seasons, a skill which seems to have deserted him for the time being.
Think of the number of small-field novice chases you’ve seen since October. Once you’ve got a few good horses, it’s not that hard to win over fences. Yet Henderson bagged just two chases in November and December. His tally for those two months in the three previous seasons was 11, 13, and 23.
I imagined that the market would take account of the stable’s travails in pricing up Josses Hill, but that has not happened and he is unbackably short, bearing in mind how his jumping got rather ragged in the second half of his chasing debut at Ascot. But he should have learned from that and his main rival is Solar Impulse, whose jumping took him out of his last race at Cheltenham.
Anyway, my interest in Henderson today will be confined to the hurdles race in which his Earth Amber (3.15) is 4-1. She’s shown promise without winning in three runs over hurdles so far and her rating of 113 ought to prove lenient, considering she was rated 100 on the Flat last summer after running second in a Group Three. She tired on soft ground at Cheltenham last time but gets a sounder surface and a flatter home straight this time.
Earlier, I think the market may have got it wrong in favouring Highland Retreat over Pepite Rose (2.05), a 2-1 shot for the Listed mares steeplechase. This is the most winnable task Pepite Rose has faced for some time; of her last five starts, three have been Grade Ones and two have been handicaps in which she ran off marks in the 150s. Her rival cannot yet match her for achievement and is getting only 4lb.
OLBG Tipping competition, day five
Our winners so far:
Monday
Claude Carter 7-1
Gores Island 3-1
Join The Navy 6-1
Tuesday
Saint John Henry 5-1
Master Rajeem 9-2
Final Assault 9-2
Wednesday
Always Bold 12-1
Steel Summit 5-2
Evident 12-1
Thursday
Scotswell 5-1
Boss In Boots 3-1
Tealissio 9-2
Beverley1976 has taken the lead, thanks to a Thursday double, though there is no shortage of folk on a positive score, including orso, who had all three winners yesterday. For a full and rare leaderboard, see below!
For today’s thrilling climax, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.40 Doncaster, 3.05 Huntingdon, 3.15 Doncaster.
This week’s prize is a pair of Premier tickets to Ascot for Saturday 17 January, kindly offered by OLBG who sponsor the mares hurdle on that day. The feature race is the Clarence House Chase, in which Sprinter Sacre is expected to make his comeback. In fact, OLBG are offering FIVE (5!) pairs of tickets, so the top five finishers in our competition will all get a pair each. This, of course, means the return of the leaderboard, for one week only. You lucky people! Do let us know if you can’t use the prize.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -12.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day (TODAY). This tie-breaking system will also apply, this week, if there is a tie for fifth place, the last place for which a prize is available.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Scores after day four
beverley1976 +18
Grazioli09 +15.50
Goldkid999 +14.50
cheriton +14.50
Blitzwing +9
Crasivo +9
GForce1 +8.50 can’t use prize
waltersobchak +7
JahLion +7
moidadem +5.50 can’t use prize
Lindsey6677 +5
kingklynch +3.50
orso +3.50
wemeanyounoharm +3 can’t use prize
Mai11 +3 can’t use prize
thereason1986 +1.50
asem24 +1
William36 -0.50
tanias -0.50 can’t use prize
sandiuk -2
Mulldog -4
slackdad38 -4 can’t use prize
Sportingbest -4 can’t use prize
yasmin11 -4
Ormrod76 -4.50
BearRides -4.50
paragoncup -4.50
CluelessWhisper -6
Fixxxer -6
titusisashambles -6.50
chris1623 -6.50
72luca -6.50
seandundee123 -8
16heathermac01 -8
wiggy12 -8
melonk -8.50
Harrytheactor -8.50
valeboy -12
gildedvanity -12
lcprestes -12
TheVic -12
erifder -12
eddiegottheblues -12
diegoisgod -12
Shrewdette -12
PHILYERBOOTS -12
dean055 -12
Ellandback -12
FastEddie68 -12
TIMEFORM -12
Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
