Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I take quite a keen interest in trainer form, so it was a surprise to find that I’d missed the recent dip in form suffered by the Roger Varian stable. My attention was drawn to it by the Racing Post’s Spotlight analyst who noted “stable quiet” in relation to a Varian runner this week.
“Quiet” in this context does not mean the Newmarket man is keeping his horses at home. He’s had 39 runners over the past fortnight and will send out another seven today. “Quiet” means he’s not getting many winners; there’s been just one, in fact, in the past two weeks.
In all fairness, 18 of the 39 were placed. Of all trainers with runners today, only Richard Fahey has had more placed horses in the past fortnight. But nicking third place in a maiden doesn’t really count as much of anything for a powerful yard like Varian’s. A win-rate of 3% is one seventh of his average for the year so far.
You may be pretty certain that Varian will turn this around soon enough. I can think of a couple of recent seasons when he went through a quiet spell at about this time of year and then bagged a domestic Group 1. If you, as a punter, decide to act on his seeming loss of form, you run the risk of picking the day when he gets multiple winners for the first time in weeks.
Still, I’d be wary of Varian-trained favourites just now and there are a couple today who seem vulnerable. At Nottingham, there’s Sharja Bridge, who has already been disappointing, having got beat at odds of 2-7 three weeks ago. Charlie Appleby’s Powderhouse (3.35) might be overpriced against him at 11-1, wearing a first-time tongue tie on this return from a 74-day break.
A half-brother to Usherette, Powderhouse’s first two efforts were workmanlike but he improved for his first run and can take another step forward here.
The other short-priced Varian runner is La Diva in Newmarket’s opener. If she’s able to build on her useful debut from a month ago, she’ll be very hard to catch but in the circumstances, I wonder if 15-2 about Finsbury Park (5.20) might be a better way to go. He improved to score at Sandown last month and just did not belong in Group 2 company at Glorious Goodwood last time. Back down to novice level, he’s a threat.
Machine Learner (3.10) is the nap for Newbury’s staying handicap. A winner on his return, he ran into a good one last time and the form of that race looks really strong. This should be easier. He’s 3-1.
If you need something at a bigger price, Samarmadi (5.50) tempts at 7-1. Soft ground at Newbury was probably the reason he flopped last time but today offers drying conditions and Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old had previously seemed very promising.
Tips for all Friday races
Wolverhampton
1.20 Llamrei 1.50 Midnightly 2.20 Indian Affair 2.50 Chatoyer 3.25 Know Your Name 4.00 Doswell 4.30 Mont Royal 5.00 Royal Loyalty
Nottingham
1.30 Eqtidaar 2.00 Global Passion 2.30 Boogie Babe (nb) 3.00 Maid In India 3.35Powderhouse 4.10 Quloob 4.40 Indulged 5.10 Diamonds A Dancing
Newbury
1.40 Purser 2.10 Qaroun 2.40 Pursuing Steed 3.10 Machine Learner (nap) 3.45Out Of The Flames 4.20 Madame Bounty 4.50 Beshaayir 5.25 Paradise Cove
Newmarket
5.20 Finsbury Park 5.50 Samarmadi 6.20 Kind Act 6.50 Pacific Salt 7.25 London Master 7.55 Florenza
Catterick
5.30 All For Nothing 6.00 Lexington Grace 6.30 Demons Rock 7.05 State Sovereignty 7.40 Perfect Words 8.10 Chookie Valentine
