Silvestre de Sousa has been Britain’s champion jockey on the Flat in three of the last four seasons, but he has drifted from 11-2 to 12-1 to retain the crown in the space of seven days as Oisin Murphy and, above all, Danny Tudhope have maintained a relentless pace in their pursuit of a first title. The three-runner championship race of early July is now, barring unforeseen accidents, very much down to two.
Murphy, who was a narrow favourite ahead of de Sousa at the start of the campaign in May, still heads the market on 4-6, but Tudhope, who has quietly built a five-winner lead at 71-66 before Thursday’s racing is now the rider he needs to worry about. Having been a 25-1 shot as recently as 25 June, Tudhope is now a 6-4 chance and if he can maintain his current strike-rate, it is only a matter of time before he replaces Murphy as the title favourite.
That, though, is quite a big “if”. Tudhope has picked up his 71 winners from 287 rides, giving him an outstanding strike rate for this stage of the season of 25%. Only two jockeys have a better record in this year’s championship: the far more selective Frankie Dettori, on 26% with 26 wins from 99 rides, and the apprentice Angus Villiers, whose 27% strike-rate is impressive but unlikely to last for very long, as it is the result of three wins from just 11 rides.
The four jockeys’ titles since the race was shortened to run from May to mid-October have been won with strike rates of either 19% or 18%. Tudhope, clearly, is smack in the middle of the season of his life, but can he keep it up?
The recent evidence is promising. On Wednesday, Tudhope went to Catterick for just three rides and came home in front on two. Laura Way, his agent, is also getting him aboard plenty of fancied runners, and Tudhope, in return, is doing the business. He rode 25 clear favourites in May and 18 in June, but he has already been aboard 23 so far in July and won on 14, well above the market’s expectation based on their SPs.
Days like this could make all the difference in the end, however. Tudhope has four rides at Hamilton, where Point Of Order (1.40) is his best chance of a winner in the opening race. Murphy, though, has six across two cards including three favourites, one of which – Above in the 3.00 at Chepstow – is certain to start at odds-on.
Murphy’s rides at Epsom later on include Allegiant (7.10), who is definitely worth backing at around 2-1 in the 10-furlong handicap. Dutch Coed (3.10) could offer some value at around 4-1 against the Tudhope-ridden Bellepower at Hamilton, where Retirement Beckons (4.40) should also run well.
The best best of the day, though, could be Sauchiehall Street (4.50) in the 12-furlong handicap at Leicester. He did not get home over two miles on his latest start but travelled well for much of the way and is currently sitting on a turf mark that is nearly a stone below his all-weather rating.
Hamilton 1.40 Point Of Order 2.10 Arnold 2.40 Harvey Dent 3.10 Dutch Coed 3.40 Lever Du Soleil 4.10 New Arrangement 4.40 Retirement Beckons (nb) 5.15 Poyle George Two
Chepstow 2.00 Loose Chippings 2.30 Papa Delta 3.00 Above 3.30 Mad Endeavour 4.00 Maid From The Mist 4.30 Flying Dragon 5.05 Paddy The Chef
Leicester 2.20 Fantom Force 2.50 Forseti 3.20 Dramatic Device 3.50 Mr Tyrrell 4.20 Gentlewoman 4.50 Sauchiehall Street (nap) 5.25 Evening Attire
Ffos Las 5.50 Midnight Folie 6.20 Grageelagh Girl 6.55 Surrey Blaze 7.30 Pink Eyed Pedro 8.00 Harbour Force 8.35 Jacbequick 9.05 Sunset Showdown
Epsom Downs 6.00 Ascot Week 6.35 Goodwood Rebel 7.10 Allegiant 7.40 Cool Reflection 8.15 Ashazuri 8.45 Shaleela’s Dream
