Industry starting prices generated from the off-course market while racing continues behind closed doors offer poorer value about fancied horses than SPs returned from the on-course betting ring, according to the latest study by the Horseracing Bettors Forum which compared SPs in 1,000 races in Britain last month against the same period in the previous three years.
The starting price has been a cornerstone of betting on horse racing for more than two centuries, and until March this year, the SPs had always been derived from a sample of prices offered by on-course bookies at the instant the runners set off.
When racing briefly moved behind closed doors in mid-March, however, the Starting Price Regulatory Commission – which is responsible for the accuracy and integrity of SPs – switched instead to a sample of off-course bookmakers’ prices, and that Industry SP (ISP) system was maintained when racing resumed post-lockdown on 1 June.
The HBF has been monitoring SP returns since 1 June and has found that the overround-per-runner (OPR) for ISPs – that is, the overall profit margin on the book divided by the numbers of runners – has been highly competitive with its predecessor. In June, in fact, the OPR was just over 1.5%, well below the average for the month in the previous three years of just under 1.9%.
The OPR has risen steadily since, though the October figure of just under 1.7pc was still slightly below the monthly average.
It is the expected return on investment (ROI) for bets on favourites versus bets on outsiders, however, which appears to reveal a subtle shift in the value on offer to backers. The HBF analysis looked at the ROI for the first three in the betting in handicaps – which tend to have bigger fields – and the first two in the market in non-handicaps.
In handicaps, it found that the ROI on SPs returned from the on-course market was -12% from 2017-19, but -14.8% since the introduction of Industry SPs. This was accompanied by a better ROI on the remaining horses in the race, up from -22.7% to -20.3%. In non-handicaps, the trend was similar, with ROI on the front two in the betting dropping from -9.2% to -11%, while the ROI on all other runners was -38.3% under the traditional system and 34.4% for the ISP.
An extra 2.8% on the amount that punters can expect to lose by backing market leaders at SP might not sound like a huge jump, but as HBF’s analysis points out, it can improve a bookie’s bottom line in a number of ways. In addition to boosting the gross margin on win bets, it will also improve the margin on multiples, most of which contain one or more favourites. The frequency and size of online payouts under “Best Odds Guaranteed” rules – where punters take a price and the SP is better – will also be reduced.
“Our SP analysis shows that punters betting the first two or three in the market will now be worse off than when SPs were derived from on-course bookmakers,” Colin Hord, the chair of the HBF, said on Thursday. “However those punters that bet longer-priced horses, which win less frequently, will be finding some additional returns. We will continue to review the figures, especially now that we have additional data from National Hunt racing.” GW
Friday’s best bets
There’s a really interesting card at Ascot but the betting market has taken a strong view as to some of the outcomes. I was planning to nap Buzz in the 2.40pm but even-money is shorter than I expected.
Nicky Henderson’s runner made his handicap debut in the Welsh Champion Hurdle last month and ran third behind Sceau Royal and Ballyandy. Unfortunately, everyone appears to be aware of that. Still, I don’t feel like going against him.
So the nap is Red Risk (2.05) at 11-4 in the preceding handicap chase. While some of Paul Nicholls’s were mopping up in October, he needed his first run back and found the ground on the lively side at Market Rasen, which will not be a problem here. He has more to offer and can best Espoir De Guye, so impressive here in December but raised a stone for it.
In Catterick’s opener, Kk Lexion (12.05) is attracting support at 9-1. It’s nearly four years since he won but he has dropped to a dangerous rating and showed plenty under a claiming amateur on his return from a long absence at Chepstow last month. Tom George’s yard is hitting form.
Catterick
12.05 Kk Lexion (nb) 12.38 Grouseman 1.13 Armattiekan 1.48 Northofthewall 2.23 Against All Odds 2.58 Ask Paddy 3.33 It's A Lily
Ascot
12.20 Chantry House 12.55 The Edgar Wallace 1.30 Metier 2.05 Red Risk (nap) 2.40 Buzz 3.15 Mr Muldoon 3.45 Tide Times
Chepstow
12.30 Cheng Gong 1.05 Lieutenant Rocco 1.40 Kapga De Lily 2.15 Cyclop 2.50 Enzo D'Airy 3.25 Champagne Rhythm 4.00 Tactical Manoeuvre
Newcastle
4.15 La Rav 4.45 Parralel World 5.15 Pockley 5.45 Tiny Danser 6.15 Fantasy Keeper 6.45 Show Me A Sunset 7.15 Ballyare 7.45 Herringswell 8.15 Swiss Connection
In the last at Chepstow, Tactical Manoeuvre (4.00) has possibilities at 8-1 or better. A three-time winner after joining Jeremy Scott last season, he will be better for his reappearance at Newton Abbot, where he made a dramatic move around the outside of the entire field on the bottom bend before blowing up. The step up in distance might be a problem for the David Pipe-trained favourite, carrying a penalty. CC
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