When betting in maidens, punters instinctively prefer to back horses who have had a run or two, on the basis that they are known to have some sort of talent. In my view, this is a fallacy -- let's face it, these are horses who have already had a chance to win a similar race and failed. One defeat can always be forgiven but you'd need to have a very good reason to back a horse who's already been beaten in two maidens -- quite apart from the fact that it may only need one more defeat to get an attractive handicap mark.
When you back an unraced horse in a maiden, you're basically backing the trainer's form rather than the horse's, but there's no reason why that should be offputting.
Visions Of Johanna (3.30) is, for me, the most likely winner of Kempton's mile maiden today, even though I've never seen the colt. Unlike most of his rivals, this son of Johannesburg is bred to do well on the all-weather and is obviously an impressive individual, having sold for $310,000 as a yearling.
In-form trainer Jeremy Noseda won a division of this race last year with a debutant and has a fine record in all-weather maidens.
Yet the odds-on favourite for this race is Austintatious, from the Brian Meehan yard that has had just three winners from 55 runners this year and is 0 from 20 in maidens. Austintatious was beaten in two turf maidens last year -- admittedly, he was beaten only by Twice Over on the latter occasion but the fact that he ran into a good horse does not necessarily make him one. The fourth home that day has been beaten in two more maidens since.
Austintatious has plenty to prove, while Visions Of Johanna has, so far, let no one down. At 13-2, he is clearly the value.
Floodlight Fantasy (3.00) would have won his last two starts but for a weak ride in an apprentice race last time and should do better for Ryan Moore in the preceding handicap.
Best bet at Windsor may be Nightspot (3.35), who won his maiden here a long time ago and put up three good efforts over today's course and distance last year. His best effort of 2007 came on his reappearance and this may be the time to catch him.
Shela House (5.05), who won here when Nightspot was third in October, will be much better for a reappearance spin round Great Leighs.
Ninefineirishmen (3.45) makes his handicap debut at Warwick and can be expected to step up on the form he showed in three maiden defeats. Karl Burke's charge finished just in front of Spirit Of A Nation last time -- that horse has since won a handicap off the same mark Ninefineirishman has here, giving weight and a beating to Stevie Thunder, who will start favourite today.
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