The blog entered nosebleed territory with five winners from six tips yesterday, which was pretty exciting -- but, as with all the best parties, there's bound to be a hangover and today's four cards (three of them on the all-weather) don't fill me with confidence.
That said, I can't believe the price about Bienhereux (4.00) in Kempton's mile-and-a-half handicap. Sure, course specialist Smokey The Bear is a more obvious winner but Gay Kelleway's charge should not be three times the price, having won off this mark. He needed a break and, with the yard in such great form, his three-month absence should be seen as a positive.
Micky Quinn doesn't get too many doubles but this could be the day Sumo flattens the bookies with a quick one-two, as it's easy to like the chances of his Waterloo Dock (Lingfield 3.20) and Blackmalkin (Kempton 3.30).
Today's nap in the paper is Moonlitesilhouette (7.50) at Wolverhampton but I can't help noticing that this one is taking a walk in the market on Betfair. As a rule, I try not to be put off by such drifts but it would be nice to see some confidence behind this Irish-trained beast making his first start over here.
For that reason, Tartan Tie (9.20) is the tip for those who like a bet on the floodlit action. Mark Johnston maintains a consistently high strike-rate in all-weather handicaps and can be relied on to have this one straight on his first start since May, when he was the comfortable winner of a Redcar maiden.
Fakima on the drift
One of today's more interesting runners is Fakima (3.10) in Musselburgh's handicap chase. Strictly on the form, he'd barely merit a second look, but he comes from the County Meath yard of ubershrewdie Tony Martin, for whom success in such circumstances is far from unknown. Whenever Martin has a runner in a handicap, the bookies must have the theme from Jaws ringing in their ears.
Fakima was the subject of a most interesting jockey change yesterday afternoon when a 7lb-claiming amateur was replaced with Tony Dobbin -- still, he was well beaten under Dobbin at Sedgefield last month and is a drifter on Betfair this morning. I'd oppose him with Johnny Roche but, if the money comes for Fakima, then it's time to get out of the water.
Nina Carberry wins Musselburgh opener
Well played to horses4courses and Jagfox for tipping 4-1 winner Rightful Ruler, who seemed to be beaten early in the straight but ended up the easy winner of the lady riders' race, with Nina Carberry looking the best pilot in the contest by a long way.
And - my God - horses4courses follows up with 7-1 Lord Deevert in the Lingfield seller. He (if it is a he) is quite literally on fire!
Red face for Sanders
Joint champion jockey Seb Sanders was arguably outridden by Simon Whitworth in the second at Lingfield. Whereas Whitworth found a nice gap up the inside and stole a march on Benllech, Sanders got stuck behind two rivals at a crucial stage and finished fast but too late on Louphole.
You were on the right one there, Jagfox, that was just unlucky. But Lingfield has been the scene of many similar heartbreaking finishes.
Drat!
What did I say about Lingfield and heartbreak? Waterloo Dock collared in the final strides by a 14-1 shot.
Here comes that hangover
Bienheureux and Blackmalkin never sighted. It's all on Tartan Tie tonight.
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