The Ayr Gold Cup – and its more recent siblings, the Silver and Bronze Gold Cups – are the feature races this coming weekend from a betting point of view, which means that, as ever, punters will invest considerable amounts of time, energy and ultimately money in trying to second-guess the effect of the draw.
Invest? Or waste? It is, of course, only natural to want to reduce a field of 25 sprint handicappers to something approaching a manageable shortlist, and taking a view about the possible effect of the draw is an obvious way to start with a race like this. What is more, this is a race where the draw has clearly had a significant effect in many renewals over the years, with the traditional wisdom being that high numbers have the edge in big-field sprints down Ayr’s straight five- and six-furlong track.
After all, it seems obvious if you look at a race like Regal Parade’s success on heavy ground a decade ago. Four of the first five home raced on the stands’ side, from stalls 20, 21, 26 and 24. Thanks to the clear draw advantage, those drawn low clearly stood no chance.
Hold up, though. In the Ayr Silver Cup 24 hours earlier, also run on heavy ground and with an identical 27-strong field, it was the other way around. Four of the first five were from the other side of the track, in stalls 7, 1, 3 and 4. Did the draw bias change completely in the space of 24 hours?
Two of the last five Ayr Gold Cup winners, meanwhile, have been drawn in stall 19. The other three were in eight, including Brando, who put up one of the great weight-carrying performances to win decisively in the most recent race, two years ago. And no one is suggesting that runners drawn outside these two stalls might as well stay at home.
In fact, the low numbers held sway in all three of the big six-furlong handicaps in 2016, which is the most recent evidence we have. In both the Silver Cup and Gold Cup, though, pretty much the entire field gravitated towards the far rail following a Bronze Cup the previous day where the pace and serious competition was all on the far side and seven of the first eight were drawn in single figures. It may be that there was a bias towards the low numbers – or it could be jockeys’ groupthink after the Bronze Cup, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
It is all far more complex that “high or low”, in other words, and any actual advantage may become evidence only when the race has reached halfway and it is all too late.
The location of the pace, though, is well worth a second glance, and Major Jumbo and Hey Jonesy – who are both, as it happens, trained by Kevin Ryan – could be two names to look out for. Major Jumbo was quick enough to lead a five-furlong handicap at Ascot in July, while Hey Jonesy did his best to match strides with Harry Angel through the first four furlongs of the Haydock Sprint Cup.
The punting fare is pretty thin, even for a Monday, but Freebe Rocks (3.40) could be worth a small interest on one of the last cards of the year at Brighton. Michael Bell has two wins on his record and both were on the all-weather, but he ran well to finish third at Leicester last time out and is 1lb lower on a mark of 59. He raced off 73 on his latest start on an artificial surface so could have a very handy weight in a race that will not take much winning.
Andalusite was a ready winner at Brighton last time out but that was over seven furlongs and the drop back to six to contest the best race on the card may not be ideal. Wiley Post (4.10), a winner here over the extended five furlongs in August, could find it more to his liking, while Frantical (4.40) should also go well at the same meeting.
Rebel Yeats (3.30) and Midnight Sapphire (4.20) look like the best bets on the jumps cards at Hexham and Worcester respectively, while Decoration of War (8.00) will take all the beating at Kempton.
Hexham
2.00 Globetrotter 2.30 Reverse The Charge 3.00 Vivant 3.30 Rebel Yeats 4.00 Cherry Princess 4.30 Rising Marienbard 5.00 Damut I’m Out
Brighton
2.10 Let Me In 2.40 Red Armour 3.10 Harlequin Rose 3.40 Freebe Rocks (nap) 4.10 Wiley Post (nb) 4.40 Frantical 5.10 Narjes 5.40 Impart
Worcester
2.20 Phangio 2.50 Leoncavallo 3.20 Dinsdale 3.50 Stacey Sue 4.20 Midnight Sapphire 4.50 Kitikat
Kempton
5.30 Athassel 6.00 Roca Magica 6.30 Kamikaze Lord 7.00 Cuban Heel 7.30 Climb Aboard 8.00 Decoration Of War 8.30 Klassique 9.00 Downtown Mombasa
