Talking Horses

Cambridgeshire winner Credit Swap will make his debut over hurdles at Leicester today. Photograph: Julian Herbert/Action Images

Paul Jones' daily Cheltenham Festival countdown stat

Six of the last seven Triumph Hurdle winners did not make their hurdling debuts until at least December. In fact, three of that winning septet did not face a hurdle in public for the first time until January which should make punters think twice about steaming in on impressive juvenile hurdlers in the ante-post market during October and November such as the ante-post favourite Sam Winner and be seriously considering any juvenile that makes a successful debut over the next 3½ weeks.

Paul Jones is author of the The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide published by Weatherbys

Today's best bets, by Chris Cook

Since it's January, there is every chance of Venetia Williams hitting a vein of form some time soon. The Herefordshire trainer has often done well in the first two months of the year and says it can be a good time to pick off some uncompetitive races, though January 2010 was unproductive for her. She could certainly do with stepping up on her strike-rate for last month (2%).

Williams fields Credit Swap (12.50) in the opener at Leicester, where racing goes ahead after an early inspection. This six-year-old was last seen holding off Steele Tango to win the Cambridgeshire and he seems a very useful hurdling prospect, dropped into a winnable novice hurdle. An 11-4 shot, he'll be fine on soft and his Flat form suggests to me that he will stay at least two miles over timber.

The going is significantly faster on the chase course at Leicester and I'm backing Guns Of Love (1.50) to see out the extended two and a half miles, a trip he has failed to stay in the past. Oddly for a nine-year-old, he has managed the first two wins of his career in his last three starts and, although both were over two miles, he simply seems to be doing things better now than he has done and distance may not be the issue that it has been for him.

He's a tempting 11-2 against some unconvincing rivals.

Nicky Henderson has a 40% strike-rate with his Leicester runners, admittedly from a sample of only 15 in five years, and his Great Reason (2.50) should make a successful chasing debut. Second to Mille Chief over hurdles at Huntingdon last January, he won a race at Ludlow but should be much better over the bigger obstacles. He's 2-1.

Tipping competition, day two

We got a respectable turnout for our first day back yesterday, considering it was a holiday. But those of you joining in today have only £3.25 to make up, as no one did better than a 9-4 winner. Arctic Court (8-1) and Brenin Cwmtudu (17-2) went completely untipped.

Today, we'd like your tips, please, for these races: 3.20 Leicester, 3.40 Southwell, 5.30 Kempton.

In celebration of racing's newly crowned Sports Personality of the Year, this week's prize is a copy of McCoy, the Racing Post's recently published record of the great jockey's career.

As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not yet joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today but you will start on -3.

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Good luck!