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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Chris Corrigan and Chris Cook

Talking Horses: Dan Skelton is jump racing's Christmas number one

North Hill Harvey, pictured at Cheltenham in October, has been the most significant winner from Dan Skelton’s yard this season.
North Hill Harvey, pictured at Cheltenham in October, has been the most significant winner from Dan Skelton’s yard this season. Photograph: Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images

Our latest ‘trainer form’ table

Dan Skelton 32% (38)
Nicky Henderson 31% (26)
Dr Richard Newland 29% (7)
Donald McCain 26% (23)
Nicky Richards 25% (8)
Lucinda Russell 25% (4)
Colin Tizzard 23% (39)
Emma Lavelle 23% (13)
Sue Smith 23% (13)
Warren Greatrex 20% (20)
Ben Pauling 20% (10)
Malcolm Jefferson 20% (5)
Jonjo O’Neill 19% (27)
Nigel Twiston-Davies 18% (33)
Kim Bailey 18% (22)
Peter Bowen 18% (11)
Fergal O’Brien 17% (18)
Evan Williams 15% (27)
Paul Nicholls 14% (43)
Tom George 14% (28)
Kerry Lee 14% (7)
Charlie Longsdon 13% (23)
Alan King 11% (18)
Gary Moore 10% (40)
David Pipe 10% (29)
Brian Ellison 8% (13)
Venetia Williams 8% (12)
Neil Mulholland 7% (29)
Philip Hobbs 5% (20)
Ian Williams 4% (25)
Tim Vaughan 0% (17)
Oliver Sherwood 0% (13)
Nick Williams 0% (11)
Harry Fry 0% (10)
Rebecca Curtis 0% (6)

Chris Cook: When Nicky Richards went top of our form table last Monday, I little thought he’d be bagging the big prize at Cheltenham five days later. Silly me for not paying more attention. Richards, along with his fellow northern trainer Lucinda Russell, continues to ride high in this table from a handful of runners, which doesn’t justify blind support but at least indicates there’s nothing much wrong with those horses that are being sent to the track.

Those consistent, big-time operators Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson have taken over the top spots this week. Dr Richard Newland is prominent, albeit on the back of only two winners from seven; they might be significant because he’d been fairly quiet.

Jonjo O’Neill, Charlie Longsdon and Alan King all seem to be heading in the right direction. Neil Mulholland’s two recent winners beat a total of three rivals between them but his Kalondra ran to a high level at Cheltenham on Saturday, so perhaps that yard is turning the corner. Harry Fry has gone a bit quiet, while Philip Hobbs remains out of form.

Each Monday through the core jumps season, we’ll monitor the relative success of 35 major jumps stables. The percentage figure is their win strike-rate for the last fortnight, while their total number of runners in that time is shown in brackets.

Today’s best bets, by Chris Corrigan

Oxwich Bay (1.00) was a strongly fancied second-favourite to win a 19-runner Cheltenham novices’ handicap hurdle a month ago but was outpaced up the hill by another well-backed runner, Magic Dancer, the favourite. The runner-up reappears in a maiden hurdle at Ffos Las today.

The appearance that the Cheltenham run was decent form was substantiated when the horse in third place that day, Champagne City, finished an admirable third in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last Friday.

Evan Williams, Oxwich Bay’s trainer, said after the race on 17 November: “I’d say we’ll drop him into a maiden hurdle over Christmas. He’s badly handicapped now.”

When bookmakers opened their market on Ffos Las’s opening race late on Sunday afternoon Oxwich Bay was a 6-4 chance, but he has now gone odds-on. That reluctance to hold the longer odds seems justified.

Indeed, Williams looks set for a short-priced double with the 5-4 shot Holdbacktheriver (2.05), who handled heavy ground when finishing a promising third at Chepstow four weeks ago.

At Musselburgh, Doktor Glaz (2.50) can build on a solid second at Wetherby last month, also over three miles, and on similar ground to the good-to-soft surface forecast for today. Rose Dobbin, who describes the seven-year-old, available at 9-4, as “a huge animal”, is enjoying an excellent strike-rate with runners at present.

Tips for all Monday races

Musselburgh
12.10
Silver Concorde 12.40 Trongate 1.10 Cousin Oscar 1.40 Sonic 2.15 Romulus Du Donjon 2.50 Doktor Glaz (nb) 3.20 Wot A Shot

Plumpton
12.20
Knocknanuss 12.50 Fixe Le Kap 1.20 Sam Brown 1.50 Bears Rails 2.25 Hollywood All Star 3.00 Finnegan’s Garden 3.30 Hideaway Vic

Ffos Las
12.30
Hands Of Stone 1.00 Oxwich Bay (nap) 1.30 Minella Scamp 2.05 Holdbacktheriver 2.40 Tornado In Milan 3.15 Misty Mai 3.45 Potters Tale

Wolverhampton
2.00
Barnaby Brook 2.25 Ballymore Castle 3.10 Perfect Symphony 3.40 Magic Mark 4.10 Hasanoanda 4.40 Carp Kid 5.10 Wonderfillo

Our annual quiz of the racing year...

...will be at 1pm on Friday. It’ll be a live quiz, so you’ll have to be there to answer questions as soon as they appear. Follow this link to see where the quiz page will appear shortly before 1pm on Friday.

First prize will be a pair of tickets to Cheltenham’s Trials Day in late January. You can see last year’s quiz here.

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