Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Forgive me, Flat purists, for beginning with faraway Perth (faraway if you live in England, anyway) when there’s quality action on the Rowley Mile. But there’s an unexpectedly good novice hurdle in prospect up there, with both Moon Racer and Ballyandy making their debuts over timber.
These are the two most recent winners of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. I would think this must be the first time consecutive winners of that race have made their hurdles debut in the same race (Moon Racer having missed nearly all of last season with injury), though I shall leave it to even geekier types to actually check that.
Moon Racer has the better bumper form, which explains why the market gives him the edge. Being a perverse sort, however, I shall be opposing them both. It’s always seemed to me that the correlation between flashy bumper horse and quality hurdler is a lot weaker than most punters imagine.
Ballyandy has a full brother (Megastar) who won the Aintree bumper before compiling a 1/10 record over hurdles. Moon Racer’s only sibling is 1/12 over hurdles (though he also failed to win a bumper, so it’s not like they’re the same animal).
Predictably, the market has almost no interest in anything else in the race but Wakea (3.20) looks a live runner to me at 9-1. He was good enough to win off 95 on the Flat for Jeremy Noseda and ran fourth in the Sagaro last year before winning two of his three hurdles starts so far for Irish-based trainer Karl Thornton.
He lost one of those wins to a positive test for an anti-inflammatory and still looked a work in progress when scoring at Clonmel a fortnight ago, though his jumping was improved on what he showed in May. “He was in no way wound-up and will come on a tonne for it,” Thornton said.
At Newmarket, Escobar looks a false favourite in the Tattersalls Stakes, for all that he was still green when landing the Washington Singer last time and will doubtless be straighter. I’m not convinced the form of that race adds up to a great deal and there might be more potential in Aidan O’Brien’s Whitecliffsofdover (3.40) at 5-1.
It’s just over a year since this son of War Front fetched $1m at auction in Kentucky. He was given a gentle introduction in June in a race won by a more fancied stablemate, Intelligence Cross, a subsequent Group Three winner. Whitecliffsofdover might have been called the paddock pick that day according to the Post.
He duly hosed up in a Naas maiden next time when stepped up to this distance. Again, the form is weak but he’s on a strong upward curve. O’Brien is on a 33% strike-rate with his juveniles in Britain this year.
At 11-2, William Hunter (4.50) is the nap in the 12-furlong handicap, having really come to himself since midsummer. A strong-travelling sort, he may actually be helped by the step up in class and I think there’s plenty more to come. He’s only up 5lb for quite a convincing Ascot success and may be on his way to the November Handicap.
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