Nicky Henderson made a slow start to the jumps season but he's finishing it with a flourish, having sent out nine winners from 29 runners in the last fortnight. His only runner today, Back To The Wind (2.10), is overpriced for Exeter's opener.
Fancied for his handicap debut last month, this novice hurdler was never going but a first-time tongue tie today could well make all the difference -- he's on offer at bigger than 25-1 on Betfair, thanks to that 'P' next to his name and is an excellent win and place alternative to the favourite, Rawdon, in this 16-runner handicap.
New equipment may also help Nougat De L'Isle (3.40), sporting blinkers in the staying handicap hurdle later on the card. In common with favourite Never So Blue, he has been sent back over the smaller obstacles after losing his confidence over fences, but my feeling is he has retained rather more pace than the market-leader.
On the Flat, Jaser (4.20) makes most appeal. The form of his recent win over today's course and distance has been boosted by runner-up Stevie Thunder, a winner since.
1.45pm Hi Cairo
Yes, there's a real chance that I'll look a hopeless optimist in half an hour's time, but a tongue tie really could make all the difference if it allows a horse to breathe during a race when he was previously struggling to do so.
I'd put more store by that than a 5lb drop in the weights, anyway. I know a lot of punters set a lot of store by such small ups and downs but I find it hard to believe that such a small amount of weight could make any odds to such a large animal.
In fairness, Mr De Giles would be one of the few 5lb claiming jockeys who could be said to be great value for that claim. But, as I say, I think the amount of weight he's taking off makes a negligible difference to the horse's chance.
2.15 Swing and a miss
That was a fair bit better from Back To The Wind, who was still in front at the third-last but faded out of the places. He looked fresh as paint for the first circuit but will win races when he learns to settle. His size suggests chasing will be more his game.
You make fair points, Cairo. I can't claim to have discussed the horse with Henderson and only inferred from the way it ran last time, and the fact that a tie was used this time, that breathing may well have been a factor. Until the day comes when British trainers are happy to talk to the racing press about all details of their charges' preparations, we will always have to make such guesses.
4.25pm Nougat crushed but Jaser wins at 6-4
Nougat De L'Isle travelled like the winner for much of the race but rooted two of the last four hurdles and tired into third.
Jaser won like a good thing, though second-placed Conquisto ran a nice race for a 40-1 shot and will be worth looking out for.
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