We have a potentially interesting but also rather odd gamble to start the week, thanks to five horses from David Jeffreys’s yard near Stow-on-the-Wold which were backed in multiple bets when early prices went up on Sunday evening.
All five have shown little form in a combined total of 16 starts for the trainer, with not a single place in the frame for any of them when running for Jeffreys. Several have interesting snippets in their back catalogue, though, which would give them a chance on Monday if back to something like their best.
It all kicks off with Notnow Seamus in the 1.00 at Southwell, a horse whose form figures, or finishing places, for Jeffreys are P5 (pulled-up and fifth) but who was cut from 20-1 to around 6-4 last night. He is out to 7-4 joint-favourite with Commis D’Office on Monday morning.
Perfect Predator – form figures 0000 (unplaced every time) – is next up in the 2.03 at Southwell, though it’s interesting that he started at 8-1 last time, a great deal shorter than would have been expected on the basis of recent performances. He is an even-money shot with most bookies though oddly out to 13-8 with Bet365, who were top-priced at 12-1 on Sunday evening.
Getaman and The Gold Bug both go in the 3.40 at Kelso, and are 6-4 and 7-1 having been available at 14-1 and 8-1 respectively on Sunday, while Blood Eagle, in the 4.20 at Plumpton, is 6-4 having been as big as 66-1 when the market opened thanks to form figures of P000 for the yard. He has an impeccable Flat pedigree, however, by Sea The Stars out of a Dubai Destination mare, cost 100,000gns as a yearling and was rated a respectable official rating of 78 at best on the Flat for Andrew Balding.
The trainer himself, meanwhile, has been playing it all down to the Racing Post on Monday morning (but then, as the conspiracy theorists would point out, they always do).
“I don’t mind having the odd punt and I’d love to tell all the punters out there, but I’d be very surprised,” Jeffreys told the trade paper on Monday. “I’m struggling like hell with some of these horses. Blood Eagle is not a great mover at all. Notnow Seamus has had a tough life. Perfect Predator doesn’t try at all and I’ve put cheekpieces on him.”
Who knows, this time next month there could be an auction under way for the film rights, but before joining in at what are now very thin odds it’s worth recalling that betting markets can be sensitive beasts and punters are as susceptible to FOMO – fear of missing out – as anyone else. If the bookmakers’ risk-management software is turned up to 11 on a quiet Sunday evening, one small Yankee at big early prices could be enough to prompt wholesale cuts across the board, leading in turn to hundreds or thousands more punters deciding to pile in too.
Southwell
12.30 Summit Like Herbie
1.00 Commis D'Office
1.30 Chosen Port
2.03 Captain Jack
2.33 Cadzand
3.03 She's Gina
3.33 Just A Deal
Plumpton
1.45 Robin Des Smoke
2.18 Forgot To Ask
2.48 Rookie Trainer
3.18 Eaglehill
3.50 Tractor Fred
4.20 Darkest Day
Kelso
2.10 Storm Nelson
2.40 Tomorrow's Angel (nap)
3.10 Word Has It
3.40 Emissaire (nb)
4.10 Le Milos
4.40 Chanting Hill
5.10 Ashjan
Monday’s best bets
Commis D’Office (1.00) will certainly be a tough opponent for Notnow Seamus at Southwell, and Captain Jack (2.03) is now an eye-catching price for the 2.03 at the same track.
Elsewhere on Monday’s cards, Tomorrow’s Angel (2.40) can extend the excellent recent form of Tristan Davidson’s yard to four wins from six runners over the past fortnight in the mares’ handicap at Kelso, while Robin Des Smoke (1.45) looks like the pick of the prices on an uncompetitive card at Plumpton.
