Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I’m delighted to see the news this morning that Cue Card has been committed to the Cheltenham Gold Cup by his owner, Jean Bishop. After his comprehensive defeat in the King George by Thistlecrack, it seemed that Colin Tizzard, who trains both, was minded to send Cue Card to the Ryanair, which the horse won four years ago.
Bishop, however, would rather take her chance in the race that matters most, while accepting that it will be very hard to turn the form around with Thistlecrack. It’s a sporting attitude that I admire and I also like the fact that the decision has been made now, whereas plans for so many horses will be left in the air until mid-March.
Anyway, this spares us the vexing possibility of Cue Card hosing up in the Ryanair and leaving us wondering if he might perhaps have finally won his Gold Cup. Victory in the latter is the crowning glory for any steeplechaser and Cue Card really might have achieved it last year, had he not fallen for the only time in his 27 races over fences.
It’s also worth remembering that his five runs in the King George include two defeats by 13 lengths or more, whereas his Cheltenham Festival record is more impressive:
- 2010 WON Champion Bumper by 8 lengths
- 2011 4th Supreme Novice Hurdle (behind Al Ferof, Spirit Son, Sprinter Sacre)
- 2012 2nd Arkle Trophy (behind Sprinter Sacre)
- 2013 WON Ryanair by 9 lengths
- 2016 Fell three-out in the Gold Cup when cruising
Newbury has finally been passed fit to stage racing today after three inspections. There’s a disappointing consensus about the most likely outcome for most races there but I shall try the 11-4 about Champagne At Tara (2.20), even though he found disappointingly little at Ascot last month.
The grey travelled like the winner that day but was outfought by Red Devil Star and I wouldn’t be completely confident that a 4lb swing in the weights would make the necessary difference. But Jack Sherwood made a contribution to the winner’s effort that day, whereas this time Red Devil Star is partnered by Micheal Nolan, 1/55 over fences since June 2015. (Of course, that stat will have a lot to do with opportunity and Nolan will get his chance to prove that point here.)
Max Ward has looked a little doubtful about his fences since beating two rivals at Huntingdon, so this might be the kind of small-field race that falls into the lap of a talented-but-tricky beast like Champagne At Tara.
In Market Rasen’s opener, there might be some value in 10-1 about Land League (1.00), from the Stuart Edmunds yard that has quite a good record in novice hurdles (5/25) for a small stable. This one took nine goes to win a point in Ireland but finally did so in November and was sold about six weeks ago.
He’s a half-brother to Drumlee Sunset, who won three races for Philip Hobbs last year and has reportedly been working well, albeit the reports come from the ownership syndicate which still has shares to sell. Much of the market is taken up by Master Of Irony, who won his novice at Catterick last month but was beaten when trying the same course and distance under a penalty a fortnight ago and may again be vulnerable here. Monbeg Oscar is also popular, though I’d guess his future lies over fences.
At Lingfield, I’m putting my faith in Adam Kirby, who is back aboard Major Ben (2.30), having delivered him perfectly to score at Wolves last month. This chestnut didn’t have much of a pace to run at when sent here a fortnight later and today’s race could work out better for him. I think he’s well treated for just his third handicap and 3-1 is fair.
