Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I’m all in favour of racecourses having repeated inspections if there’s a chance that, for example, frost may come out of the ground and allow racing to go ahead. It’s a dreadful hassle for connections, who may have to travel quite some distance for no reason at all, but it’s not like we have to go through this every day of the year. The importance of sustaining the sport justifies the inconvenience, I reckon.
That being said, I have to start today’s tipping piece without knowing whether either of the day’s jumps cards is going to take place. So I’ll take the fairly unusual step of starting with Southwell’s all-weather card and I’ll move on to Wetherby if they’ve had some good news in Yorkshire by that time. Thank God for Fibresand, eh?
Baileys Apprentice (1.40) is a drifter for Southwell’s opener, out to 25-1 from 14s, but comes from the Mark Johnston yard which seems to get its share of drifting winners. More importantly, Johnston has a 21% strike-rate at Southwell, compared to his usual 15%, suggesting to me that he’s not bad at anticipating which horses will cope well with that unique surface. His strike-rate rises to 23% and returns a level-stakes profit when limited to three-year-olds.
This filly showed some ability in her maidens but has dropped 9lb from her initial mark after four handicap defeats, three on turf and one on Polytrack. She has been finishing her races weakly, which usually puts me off, but today’s change in circumstance may make the necessary difference and I’m happy to take a chance at the price. It’s not a strong race and she has six winning siblings, so there may be talent in her that we have not yet seen.
L’Inganno Felice (3.40) is a more confident tip in the mile and a half handicap. He’s thrived since joining Iain Jardine last summer and bolted up over this course and distance a fortnight ago. It’s a decent race but I don’t think a 7lb rise is going to stop him and 9-4 is fine.
It seems that Wetherby has passed its inspection! Dream Flyer (2.30) is the nap, having won on his debut for Keith Dalgleish at Musselburgh three weeks ago. Even after a 7lb rise for that, he remains below his previous winning mark, which was achieved around here. Given that he jumped left at Musselburgh, you’d think this course would suit better. He’s 11-4.
Leicester must pass a third inspection at 12pm if racing is to go ahead there. Fly Home Harry (1.50) at 9-2 makes most appeal, seeking a hat-trick in handicap chases and with cheekpieces fitted to help the concentration that seemed to wander at Southwell last time.
NB We have a new-fangled way of presenting our tips for all today’s races, which you will find in a lovely blue patch on the left of today’s news story, next to the second and third paragraphs.
