Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
The last time I tipped Shady McCoy (2.35), he was a 50-1 shot in a 27-runner race, finishing strongly into fourth. Today in a much smaller field, with the consequent risk of a weaker pace, he’s much shorter at 4-1. Hmmm, going in again in these circumstances is not generally the right thing to do and may indicate that you’re just following a horse over a cliff.
But I see a strong case for him again, even if I’d rather be taking the 15-2 that was briefly available when betting began on this race. He’s a hold-up type but I feel the tactics were overdone in the Victoria Cup, when he was in a share of last place at the two pole.
He runs off the same mark here, just 2lb higher than when finishing strongly to score over this course and distance in July. He also won around this track on his previous visit, in June 2015.
Silvestre de Sousa gets the ride this time, which is encouraging. I’ll give him a chance against the likes of Horsted Flaming Keynes and Castle Harbour, with whom John Gosden is reaching for cheekpieces.
Hugo Palmer has the favourite in a later maiden on the card, which seems a good opportunity to look for an alternative at a bigger price, in view of his yard seeming under a cloud just now. That could be overplayed, of course, and Palmer won a maiden just yesterday but he’s on a most unfamiliar 7% strike-rate just now.
Button Up (4.55) appeals at 6-1. She’s a half-sister to Stargazer and Stravagante, who both came good at about this stage of their three-year-old seasons. Her December debut showed only modest promise but Sir Michael Stoute’s filly should be able to take a big step forward now.
Sandown stages the best evening card of the year but I find myself struggling to look past the obvious ones. Sound And Silence should win the National Stakes and Big Orange stands out in the Henry II. I’m only spared putting up So Mi Dar in the Brigadier Gerard by the fact that her blood picture is unpleasing in some way, so she’s become a non-runner.
I wonder if Algometer (7.35) might be over-priced at 12-1 for that race, now that David Simcock seems to have turned the corner and had both the placed horses in Saturday’s Lockinge. Algometer ran well over this course and distance on his seasonal return a year ago. He is also the only horse to beat Dartmouth in a non-Group One contest since 2015. Perhaps he might need more juice in the ground than he’ll get here.
I also like Silver Ghost (6.00), who is favourite for the opening 10-furlong handicap but at a semi-respectable 5-1. For some reason, he only racked up five runs for Peter Makin and then Geoffrey Deacon but he’s now with the in-form Eve Johnson Houghton and ran well on his debut for her at Lingfield. Returning to turf should help this grey, who has a bit of a stride on him.
Thursday racing tips
Catterick
1.50 Time Trail 2.20 Rebel Assault 2.55 Mr Strutter 3.30 Extrasolar 4.05 Veiled Secret 4.40 Juan Horsepower 5.15 Cupid’s Arrow 5.45 Thornaby Princess
Goodwood
2.00 Masar 2.35 Shady McCoy (nap) 3.10 October Storm 3.45 Secret Advisor 4.20 Icespire 4.55 Button Up 5.25 Captain Ryan
Warwick
2.10 Blairs Cove 2.45 Excellent Team 3.20 Exxaro 3.55 Derrintogher Bliss 4.30 Festive Affair 5.05 Bronco Billy 5.35 Nuclear
Chelmsford
5.50 Kiringa 6.20 Scribner Creek 6.55 Ebtkaar 7.25 Melting Dew 8.00 Noble Gift 8.30 Sans Souci Bay 9.00 Suzi Icon
Sandown
6.00 Silver Ghost (nb) 6.30 Sound And Silence 7.05 Big Orange 7.35 So Mi Dar (non-runner) 8.10 Zainhom 8.40 Makzeem
