Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
These days, the name ‘Tizzard’ is the first one to grab your attention, if you happen to be perusing the list of trainers involved in a staying chase. So it is with today’s Sussex National at Plumpton, for which Colin T’s Sartorial Elegance was predicted as favourite in the morning papers.
Evidently, the betting market is not entirely convinced, however, as it has allowed this six-year-old to drift out to 8-1. I share those reservations, since this six-year-old has been raised more than a stone in the weights for hammering a handful of rivals at this track last month.
Of course, he’ll be interesting again if those odds get any bigger. But it’s interesting to note that Tizzard is not quite so in-form as one might assume. Since his spectacular November, he’s been rubbing along at a strike-rate of 12%, though the successes have certainly been high-profile and he’s punching miles above his weight in prize money terms.
If today is not his day, then perhaps it might be a day for Emma Lavelle, maintaining a fine strike-rate of 21% through her first season in a new stable. She fields Onderun (2.50), a former pointer who finally came good at Lingfield last month, taking over at halfway and winning by eight lengths.
That first success was also his first run for 11 months and the trainer reported the eight-year-old had been “all wrong” the previous winter. An 8lb rise does not look at all excessive and he is at the right end of the weights for this big-field slog. He’s 11-2 and proving popular.
There’s 7-1 about Dormouse (3.50) in the closer, which is fair. This 12-year-old was predictably left behind on a sound surface at Leicester in November but will be more suited by the ground he gets here and has fallen to a fair weight, a few pounds below the mark from which he won twice at Lingfield in December 2015. Tom Scudamore, who was aboard for both of those, returns to the saddle.
The card at Ayr goes ahead, a planned inspection having been cancelled. I like the 7-2 about Lochnell (1.00), whose three wins have all been at this track, including over course and distance in November. She was a fair second at Doncaster last time when the going lacked the necessary juice for her.
On Southwell’s Fibresand, Englishwoman (1.40) tempts at 12-1, returning to this track for the first time since scoring twice here in February. A series of summer defeats on grass have taken her back down to a beatable mark and there was renewed promise in her Kempton effort last month.
