Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Less than a fortnight after my last stint in the BHA’s disciplinary dungeon, I shall be back in the jug again this morning for the Jim Best rehearing. If anyone had ever made a t-shirt with ‘I’d rather be at Kempton’ written on the front, I’d be wearing it today.
Two-runner races are not popular with anyone but, unless we get a non-runner, there’s plenty of potential interest in the novice chase at the Sunbury track today in which Altior makes his fencing debut. The Supreme winner seems to have scared off all rivals bar one but Black Corton (1.25) remains and could run above his odds of 6-1.
On hurdles form, he’d have two stone to make up and that’s about as much analysis as the betting market seems to want to do. Top-Class Hurdler versus Horse I’ve Never Heard Of equals no contest for most folk.
But let me share with you the description of Black Corton offered by Paul Nicholls to the Racing Post in their Stable Tour series:
“A massive improver. Last season he was lean and light and much too keen, but he´s a different animal now.”
Having won a maiden hurdle in April, Black Corton started his season with another couple of quick wins before his novice status over hurdles expired on 1 November. It was always Nicholls’ plan to go chasing at some point thereafter and this five-year-old also makes his debut in that sphere today.
He’s a strong-galloping front-runner, which is interesting because it gives him the chance to put a bit of pressure on Altior. Noel Fehily will want a lead on the favourite, which ought to give Nick Scholfield the chance to wind up the pace from the front, as he did on Black Corton at this track last month. Altior will then have to make up ground and deliver a challenge while jumping fences at speed and that isn’t guaranteed to go smoothly.
Of course, nothing is easier to imagine than Altior cruising alongside and going past when he pleases. Even allowing for the odd sticky jump from him and a significant improvement from the other, Altior will be the faster horse here.
But he hasn’t raced on a surface this slow since he was third at 13-8 in a bumper behind Barters Hill last year; good form but clearly not his best. Black Corton’s best form is also on a sound surface but, in the context of this race, the recent rain counts as good news for him inasmuch as it takes the emphasis off speed.
There’s such a danger in assuming that hurdles superiority will translate to fences. Nicky Henderson, Altior’s trainer, has a fine record at Kempton but had an odds-on loser in the equivalent race just two years ago.
It’s the kind of card where you can easily run into a rival of unforeseen quality, exposing any weakness when you might have hoped for an easy ride. Thanks to that noted bampot West Wizard, Henderson has had at least three odds-on defeats on this day in recent seasons. I wish no ill on Altior but, at the available odds, I’m against him today.
I’m slightly annoyed to be getting just 5-1 about Atirelarigo (2.35) in a later handicap chase, since his form figures (6F/30-) are most uninspiring and several of his rivals have been winning. But this ex-French type came within one late blunder of making a winning debut for Philip Hobbs in a novice hurdle here in February, finishing third, a neck behind Label Des Obeaux.
On that form, he might be chucked in on his mark of 119, having been dropped 4lb for a poor end-of-term showing here in March when the ground was probably on the quick side for him. It would be no surprise if this six-year-old, a winner over fences in France, is now more capable of doing himself justice. Hobbs had a big day on Saturday and anything he runs is of interest just now.
At Chelmsford, Pactolus (3.30) is overpriced at 16-1 for a mile handicap. He scored three times at this track from August 2015 to March and, after a predictably fruitless turf campaign in the summer, is fairly treated for another productive winter.
Perhaps this trip is just on the sharp side but he’s well drawn to get a handy early position and will be sharper for his recent close-up fifth here, his first run for two months. He wears cheekpieces for the first time, replacing a hood, which may be intended to help him in the early stages.
