Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I’ve managed to get myself into a couple of Twitter arguments since the King George VI Chase by saying that Vautour belongs in the Gold Cup when the Cheltenham Festival comes around. General opinion is certainly divided on the subject, in light of his having got collared close home in the Boxing Day race.
Racing thrives on differing opinions, so that’s all to the good, but there are two things for which I have less sympathy. The first is the astonishing certainty with which people assert that Vautour will not stay in the Gold Cup. I can understand why you might have a view either way but how, in all seriousness, can you not leave room for doubt, given that we’re talking about a six-year-old who was beaten just a head in the midwinter championship on his first attempt at three miles? The way some people are carrying on, you’d think they had never been surprised by the outcome of a horse race.
The second thing I’m frowning at is the willingness of many people to see such a talented animal run in the Ryanair rather than the Gold Cup. I enjoy the Ryanair when it’s taking place but let’s not pretend it’s the main event. It’s a nice opportunity for horses who aren’t good enough to win either the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup but anyone who runs a horse in the Ryanair that would have a live chance in those other races is being terribly unambitious.
Yes, it will be difficult for Vautour to win the Gold Cup but great moments in sport are not created by doing what is easy.
On a related subject, I note that the favourites for today’s two Grade Ones at Leopardstown are both trading at 2-5. I’m a bit surprised to see 9-1 about Windsor Park (2.30), who, let’s not forget, beat Nichols Canyon, today’s favourite, at the Cheltenham Festival. Today’s shorter trip will put more of an accent on pace but it is not clear to me that that favours Nichols Canyon.
The softer ground here than at Cheltenham might be more of a factor in turning the tables, while a return to front-running tactics seems to have helped Nichols Canyon, who took the very notable scalp of Faugheen last month. Windsor Park is running over hurdles for the first time since March and perhaps this outing is in the nature of a test rather than the big aim for the season. But 9-1 is too big about such a classy animal in this small field.
The one that catches my eye in Britain is Godsmejudge (3.25) at Doncaster. This nine-year-old has been dropped 10lb for two poor efforts to start the season and he’s now 16lb below the mark from which he was second in last year’s Scottish National and third in the Bet365 Gold Cup a fortnight later.
This is his least intimidating task since his novice days and he wears a tongue tie for the first time. Noel Fehily, riding him for the first time, has an excellent record for the horse’s trainer, David Dennis, who inherited the horse from Alan King in the summer. Dennis appears to be training all of the owner’s jumpers these days. All in all, there are a few reasons to expect an improved showing here and you can get 12-1.
Tipping competition back on Monday 4th January
There will be no tipping competition during the holidays but Talking Horses will continue through the festive season so please do keep us company and share any fancies you may have for the racing over Christmas and the new year.
