Trainer form is a tricky beast. When David Simcock saddled the second and third in the Lockinge three weeks ago it looked as if the Newmarket man had probably overcome his slow start to the season and was now worth following but, almost a month later, he is still struggling along on a low strike-rate.
Breton Rock, one of his Lockinge heroes, is the likely favourite for today’s John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock and the veteran should be suited by the likely squelch underfoot. But it is not comfortable being on favourites from his yard in competitive races just now.
Mitchum Swagger (4.05) is an interesting alternative at 5-1 or so, with Ryan Moore a fascinating jockey booking. This one faded away in the Lockinge but stepping back a furlong and down in class might be what he needs and he has got his ground again. He came within a head of landing a Group Three at this track in September.
2.20 Haydock Wiliam Haggas’s Pennsylvania Dutch had only one run but it was over this course and distance that he made an impressive winning debut in September. His rating for this handicap looks pretty tasty on that evidence and his pedigree suggests a softer surface may help.
2.30 Newmarket A half-brother to the winner of seven handicaps, Six Strings got off the mark in an autumn maiden but better can be expected this year, following a gelding operation.
2.55 Haydock Aged five, Handsome Dude is holding his form a lot better this term than last, winning on the all-weather in February and being first home on the wrong side at Thirsk last month. Another soft surface may help him here, which is not necessarily true of the likely favourite, Snap Shots.
3.10 Chester A half-sister to a Middle Park winner, Khamaary could not have been more impressive on her handicap debut at Redcar. She has gone up a whopping 16lb but looks capable of shouldering that.
3.30 Haydock The James Fanshawe yard is just getting going and Return Ace, unexposed and with an encouraging pedigree, is attractive if she can return in the sort of form that saw her score at Newmarket on her first run of last year.
3.40 Newmarket Lurking at the bottom of the weights, Batts Rock is a potentially significant improver after only five starts and punters should not be put off by his seventh placing last time, when he travelled well until clipping a rival’s heels. On the promise he showed that day and when second at Ascot two weeks before he is of great interest.
Saturday’s tips
Beverley 2.05 Silken Moonlight 2.40 Cardsharp 3.15 Rebel Assault 3.50 Prying Pandora 4.25 Dream Free 5.00 Thornaby Nash (nb) 5.35 Pass The Cristal
Catterick 1.40 Villa Tora 2.15 Sir Geoffrey 2.50 Collodi 3.25 Sakhee’s Return 4.00 Art History 4.35 Gilmer 5.10 World Power
Chepstow 5.40 Seneca Chief 6.10 Frostbite 6.45 Amenta 7.15 Alaadel 7.45 Satchville Flyer 8.15 Iniesta 8.45 Tsundoku
Chester 2.00 Awsaaf 2.35 Forever A Lady 3.10 Khamaary 3.45 Tallinski 4.20 St Mary’s 4.55 Lucky Beggar 5.30 Energia Fox
Haydock 1.45 High Waves 2.20 Pennsylvania Dutch 2.55 Handsome Dude 3.30 Return Ace 4.05 Mitchum Swagger 4.40 Arc Royal 5.15 Commodity
Newmarket 1.25 Al Fujairah 1.55 Tangled 2.30 Six Strings 3.05 Al Qahwa 3.40 Batts Rock 4.15 Luqyaa 4.50 Marqoom 5.25 Firnas
Stratford 6.00 Lieutenant Gruber 6.30 Dunraven Storm (nap) 7.00 Court Minstrel 7.30 Cobra De Mai 8.00 Optimistic Bias 8.30 Defining Year 9.00 No Hiding Place
