Friday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
In common with at least several other people, I’ve found Goodwood’s handicaps to be a frustrating experience over the last two days. Ode To Evening (10-1) led everywhere bar the line. Oceane (11-1) contrived to leave his challenge too late in the longest race of the week.
So I’m aware that things can go wrong in these races, even if you’ve picked the right horse. For that reason, I can have no interest in Franklin D, the hot, hot favourite for today’s Betfred Mile, who has been backed down to general odds of 2-1 for a 20-runner handicap.
He was, of course, extremely impressive in beating a dozen rivals by six lengths at the July meeting. A 3lb penalty for that won’t make much difference, he’s got a handy inside draw and Ryan Moore rides for the first time. Even I can see that the stars are in alignment for this pony.
But there is neither fun nor long-term profit to be had in backing horses at absurdly short odds and so, remembering that Franklin D’s record in turf handicaps is one out of five, I shall leave him alone. The suggested alternative, Red Avenger (3.10), is really an each-way play because you couldn’t be bullish about him but there is clear potential for him to run a lot better than odds of 28-1 suggest.
He’s back to his last winning mark, he took this very race from 1lb higher two years ago and it’s not at all beyond Gary Moore to have got him straight for this, two months after his most recent outing. He also has a handy draw in three and, despite what seemed a protracted bout of rain yesterday, Goodwood’s going remains fast, to judge by a GoingStick reading of 8.2 this morning
I’ve talked through my tips for today’s four Channel 4 races here. Mount Logan (2.00) is being backed now but you can still get 100-30 and there is a lot to like about a horse unbeaten in three around Goodwood whose main rival (Kings Fete) hasn’t won for two years.
I certainly wouldn’t want to take on the progressive and classy Thikriyaat in the 2.35 but, at 11-4, I shall restrain myself from having an actual bet. After all, Paul Hanagan’s Goodwood strike-rate is only 5%.
Rather more tasty is the 8-1 about Naafer (4.20), despite my surprise that Hanagan has chosen to ride Rusumaat instead. Naafer is an improving William Haggas filly who won nicely at York last time and looks well treated on 84 for this first nursery. She has a brother, trained by Haggas until this year, who was rated 98 at the end of his juvenile season and won a Meydan handicap off 113 in February.
Finally, I’m surprised to be getting 16-1 about Opal Tiara (4.55) in the Oak Tree. Seven furlongs on fast ground looks her thing and she was impressive in handing Red Box the only defeat she’s had in her last four starts, at Carlisle last month. She just needs Oisin Murphy to get her into a halfway decent position from the widest draw.
Betfair Glorious Goodwood tipping competition, FINAL DAY! (Day 4)
watermelon12 +22
ID0330506 +15
slowhandray +13.88
RedmonT +12.88
Harrytheactor +11.75
48Possums +11.50
jakebuckfast +7.50
ps4999 +7.50
kingklynch +7.38
Toptrapper +7.13
72luca +7
diegoisgod +6.88
wemeanyounoharm +6.38
Hibeeman +4.88
stanflashman +4.50
Goldkid999 +4.25
Fixxxer +3
AndieAndson +3
dean055 +2.13
dickthebutcher +1.63
waltersobchak +1.50
Tiporama +0.50
Blitzwing +0.50
GForce1 +0.25
stu1892 +0
Copshaw -0.50
Shrewdette -0.50
moidadem -0.50
wiggy12 -0.75
James ‘Jimmy’ Runacres -1.25
robertkeen -1.25
Wrighty87 -2
Esherhammer -2.12
graftonway -2.12
JahLion -3
chris1623 -3
paul gittings -3
jamesstod -3.25
gregcwb -3.75
Mulldog -3.75
titusisashambles -4.12
Ormrod76 -4.12
fatdeano -4.25
Sportingbest -4.25
Ellandback -4.50
TheVic -4.50
Lindsey6677 -4.50
Mai11 -4.50
gawpingtongawper -4.50
Geoff Staddon -5.12
ubikubik -5.87
Harry Bowles -6.37
zubica19 -6.50
23skidoo -6.50
melonk -7.50
PHILYERBOOTS -7.50
Michael Leedham -7.50
Simon Popplewell -7.50
Crasivo -7.50
BearRides -7.50
intelligentlaying -7.50
Bigboozer -7.50
BatmanKaisers -8.25
cerises -8.25
William36 -8.75
kmill68 -8.75
moomies -8.75
alleged7 -12 NQ
snowy81 -12 NQ
yasmin11 -12 NQ
Perry Tang -12 NQ
ID5386281 -12 NQ
beverley1976 -12 NQ
eddiesgottheblues -12 NQ
MISTERCHESTER -12 NQ
SongMcRigobert -12 NQ
Bonzodrongo -12 NQ
dirtynorthernbastard -12 NQ
goofs -12 NQ
16heathermac01 -12
TommyOrts88 -12
NotABoss -12
factormax -12
Bacciodilupo -12
jakesnake1 -12
joehow -12
sandiuk -12
millreef -12
pkhughesy92 -12
Already in front after Wednesday, watermelon12 gave himself a handy lead by picking the first two Thursday winners. Impressively, seven others had the same double. 48Possums rocketed up the leaderboard into sixth by picking THREE winners yesterday, missing only Mehmas. 72luca also had a treble, which, although slightly less valuable, has carried him into contention.
Just 10 of you are still standing in the Worst Tipster prize, Mehmas alone having skittled eight contenders yesterday. The average SPs of those still in contention so far are:
Bacciodilupo 13-2
jakesnake1 7-1
pkhughesy92 8-1
sandiuk 8-1
TommyOrts88 8-1
NotABoss 9-1
millreef 10-1
16heathermac01 11-1
factormax 15-1
joehow 30-1
Joehow and factormax need something terrible to happen to the others but otherwise this is quite a close scrap. Bacciodilupo has been very brave, taking on Blue Point, Shaan, Afjaan and Montataire.
For the avoidance of doubt, this is the last day of both our competitions, as we don’t run tipping competitions on Saturdays.
Those marked ‘NQ’ are not eligible for the worst tipster prize, having either picked a non-runner or posted their tips after the first race had started.
For today’s thrilling climax, we’d like your selections, please, for these races: 3.10 Goodwood, 3.45 Goodwood, 4.20 Goodwood, 5.30 Goodwood.
Winners so far
Tuesday
Dutch Connection 9-4
Elidor 16-1
Boom The Groom 13-2
Desert Haze 13-2
Wednesday
Ulysses 9-2
The Gurkha 11-8
Sagaciously 14-1
Shady McCoy 14-1
Thursday
Mehhmas 7-2
Big Orange 11-4
Bear Valley 8-1
Laughton 13-2
We have two £50 bets as prizes this week, generously offered by Betfair, and, as has become our custom for Glorious Goodwood, we’ll be offering two prizes: one for the tipster that does best and one for the tipster that does worst. It’s a way of recognising what a tricky week this is for punters and how things can go badly wrong for any of us.
Prize 1: Best Tipster
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be four each day up until and including Friday. Non-runners count as losers.
If you have not joined in so far, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -12 and you will not be eligible for Prize 2.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Prize 2: Worst Tipster
As an additional prize for those at the other end of the leaderboard, we’re offering a one-off prize to whoever does worst this week. Our winner will be the one who finishes on -16 having picked horses at a shorter average starting price than all others who finished on -16.
To qualify for this prize, you must select a runner in each of our competition races. If one of your selections becomes a non-runner, you must replace it before the race starts or you will be eliminated. You will also be eliminated if any of your selections should happen to win.
If, at the end of the competition, two or more people on -16 are tied for the lowest average SP, the winner will be whichever of them posted their Friday tips earliest.
Otherwise, the usual terms and conditions apply.
Good luck! (or bad luck, as appropriate)
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
