Today’s best bet, by Chris Cook
Well, hooray! We have slogged our way through the valley twixt Goodwood and York, arriving once more at the glorious peak of a top-quality midweek race-meeting.
Today’s Juddmonte International is really intriguing, though a bit odd in one respect. If you spooled back 11 months and asked who might be running in this race, I think all of these would be pretty hard to pick. The one you might have got would be My Dream Boat, since he won the Prince of Wales last summer, but he’s the rank outsider today.
Ulysses (3.35) will do for me. I had my doubts about this one until the Eclipse but you don’t often see a horse travel through a Group One the way he did that day and I resolved then to stick with him until thoroughly shown up.
I found it very odd that he was 9-1 for the King George and was practically hugging myself as he cruised into contention around the home turn. Then Enable went whoooosh and all hope died.
I’d be pretty surprised if there’s something in this field that can do that to Ulysses, especially since conditions (fast ground, 10 furlongs) are more Eclipse than King George. He only just got the better of Barney Roy at Sandown and I dare say it may be close again but he did win and now, at 7-2, he’s a bigger price than that rival, which makes me think there’s only one sensible way to go.
Where’s the pace coming from? None of these are established pace-setters and it seems a mistake that Godolphin haven’t supplied Barney Roy with a pacemaker, given how strongly he stayed on at Sandown.
I wonder if Frankie might try to pinch it from the front on Shutter Speed. She was a prominent racer in her three starts before the French Oaks, when she was drawn wide in a big field and was more or less forced to accept a position in the midfield on the outer. Dettori was riding with an undiagnosed broken shoulder, which seemed to give him trouble with settling her in the early stages and then with pushing her out in the final furlong.
If you put a line through that run, Shutter Speed regains her unbeaten record. And let’s not forget that, when she won at Newbury in April, Enable was third, suffering the only defeat of her career. Enable stays on powerfully over a mile and a half but Shutter Speed had the legs of her that day, over 10 furlongs on fast ground.
So what do we make of Shutter Speed’s chance, with her first-time tongue tie and her chance of an uncontested lead? Better than 10-1, I’d say. Ulysses is my winner but I’m tempted by a forecast with Shutter Speed.
I like Robot Boy (1.55) in the opening sprint handicap but I liked him better when he was 33-1 last night. I’m afraid 25-1 is the best available as I type and perhaps it will be shorter still by the time you’re reading. He’s been Pricewised, though that’s quite a dramatic move even for Pricewise and I wonder if there’s some additional factor at play.
Two years ago, Robot Boy was fourth in this race from a 9lb higher mark. Last year, he beat 18 rivals over a slightly shorter trip here and is back to the same mark he had that day. Now that his trainer, David Barron, is properly in form for the first time this year, Robot Boy could easily get involved.
I’m a bit suspicious of the Acomb favourite, Dee Ex Bee, since the going will be so different to the soft he sluiced through on his only run so far. Aidan O’Brien’s progressive and experienced Fleet Review (2.25) seems more like it at 4-1.
Odds-on about Cracksman in the Voltigeur is for the birds. He looked a bit ponderous in the Derbys and I don’t think connections are just making excuses when they suggest he’s next year’s horse.
At the risk of chucking good money after bad, I’ll side with Venice Beach (3.00), who so disappointed me at Epsom. He might have been a bit too close to the hot pace that day but really a horse doesn’t need an excuse for a bad run there. These things happen at Epsom. He ran on dourly to be a close third off a slow pace in the Grand Prix de Paris on his only run since and I think his stablemates here will ensure a stronger pace this time. Ryan Moore rides for the first time since they won the Chester Vase together and they’re 15-2.
York form steers me towards Shrewd (4.15) in the staying handicap. He was, after all, a running-on second in last year’s Ebor and is now a couple of pounds lower with a couple of extra furlongs to help. He has had an anonymous year but was flying very high in the Ascot Stakes and the Galway Hurdle. Iain Jardine is another trainer who seems hot now, having been merely tepid when this horse last ran on the Flat.
Perversely, I’ve napped in the last at Worcester tonight. I really like Aristocracy (8.00) and I thought the big field might help to shore up the price a little, which it has; he’s 4-1.
He hardly seems old enough, at six, but was a winner for Andy Turnell back in the day, from a mark of 104. He then lost his form for Andy and, subsequently, Sally Randell but to no one’s surprise has recovered it for Fergal O’Brien.
On his first hurdles run for over a year, at Bangor 19 days ago, he was backed down to favourite and finished strongly but just too late to catch the second-favourite, his conditional rider losing an iron in the closing stages. Now Paddy Brennan (three wins from his last six rides) climbs aboard and I bet he’ll make the horse’s low rating tell.
Tips for all Wednesday races
Carlisle
1.35 Poet’s Pride 2.05 Picture No Sound 2.40 Yes You 3.15 Show Palace 3.50 Brother McGongagall 4.25 Im Dapper Too 4.55 Kashmiri Sunset 5.25 Goninodaethat
Bath
1.45 Our Lord 2.15 Go Roo 2.50 Eugenic 3.25 Just Fred 4.00 Satisfy 4.35 Delagate This Lord 5.10 Hope Is High 5.40 Nutini
York
1.55 Robot Boy 2.25 Fleet Review 3.00 Venice Beach 3.35 Ulysses 4.15 Shrewd (nb) 4.50 Kalagia
Worcester
5.00 The Geegeez Geegee 5.30 Ink Master 6.00 Star Foot 6.30 Forgotten Hero 7.00 Oscar’s Song 7.30 Cliffside Park 8.00 Aristocracy (nap)
Kempton
6.15 Azezati 6.45 Munstead Star 7.15 Dubai Elegance 7.45 Mazyoun 8.15 Denmead 8.45 Morello
