Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Hmm, perhaps it is the season for jockey changes. Following the most surprising news at the weekend about Jim Culloty ditching Davy Russell, it appears that the owner Roger Brookhouse does not wish to use Paddy Brennan as often as before.
Brookhouse has horses in several yards and generally seems happy to have the stable jockey aboard his runners, whoever that happens to be. But his Wuff was ridden by Denis O’Regan on Friday and his Seven Nation Army is to be ridden by O’Regan in Newton Abbot’s opener today.
That seems significant because both horses are trained by Tom George, who uses Brennan for most of his runners. Brennan had ridden Wuff in its previous five races and rode Seven Nation Army in its last four. Since those horses came to George’s yard, no other jockey had ridden them in a race, until Friday.
None of the people involved has discussed this in public, so perhaps we shouldn’t read much into it. But Brennan was at Newbury and available when Wuff ran on Friday and he will be at Newton Abbot and available when Seven Nation Army runs today. He could easily do the weight in both cases and Tom George continues to use him on horses owned by people other than Brookhouse. So something else is up.
For what it’s worth, Brennan has ridden more winners (seven from 23 rides) for Brookhouse in Britain this season than any other jockey. Perhaps they will be working together again shortly. But these relationships change over time, O’Regan has borne his share of suffering from falling out of favour and few would grudge him a fresh chance on some good horses.
The going at Newton Abbot always seems to be softer than you’d expect. While other tracks are drying up, it’s Good to Soft, Soft in places for today with a GoingStick reading of 4.7. That suggests the ground may be softer than the formal description because the going has been Heavy at Newton Abbot in the past when the GoingStick reading was just a fraction lower at 4.6.
So I shall take a chance on the 20-1 shot Farbreaga (3.10) in the staying handicap chase. He goes well with a bit of cut, as he showed when hosing up at Uttoxeter in February. On Good going at Doncaster and in a much better race, he was pulled up last time.
Today’s race is not nearly so challenging and he’s been dropped 3lb. He’s still on a high mark but I can see him getting involved here if there really is some juice in the ground. Annoyingly, this is not an each-way race, with just seven runners.
More conventional selections begin at Southwell with Legal Art (2.20) in the opening maiden. Tijan is hot favourite but he was disappointing on soft ground on his debut and was outbattled at Kempton on his only other start last year, albeit in a race that has worked out well. Saeed bin Suroor, trainer of Tijan, is not noted for getting his British horses ready this early in the year and his handful of March runners over the last four years have not produced a winner here.
Legal Art, a 4-1 shot, ran three decent races on Polytrack last month while suggesting she would appreciate more of a test. Seven furlongs round here will provide it and her sire, Dutch Art, has done well with his runners on Fibresand.
She will be ridden for the first time by Ben Curtis and it is at least interesting that Curtis has such a good record at Southwell (23 wins at a 19% rate). He has another good chance on Two Moons (3.20), whose three wins have all come over today’s course and distance.
At Kempton tonight, I like Moonfaarid (7.45), who showed renewed promise in a maiden last time, his first run for Jane Chapple-Hyam. He was dropped 1lb for that but will be right in the argument if he can find anything extra for that reappearance outing and appeals at 5-1. I admire City Of Angkor Wat but he’s 23lb higher now than in September and his latest run suggested he might have done enough for the time being.
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Mighty Mambo 8-1
Frozen Over 6-1
Cosway Spirit 15-8
Tuesday
Palm Grey 3-1
Mr Squirrel 11-2
Conserve 3-1
And our leader is. . .
dean055 +10.38
. . . who added Mr Squirrel to his first-day double. TheVic (+9.88), sandiuk (+7) and Harrytheactor (+7) snap at his heels.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.40 Newton Abbot, 4.10 Newton Abbot, 6.15 Kempton.
This week’s prize is a copy of Timeform’s Horses To Follow for the coming Flat season. Retailing at £9.95, it offers 50 horses to follow, chosen by Timeform’s team of experts, plus Irish horses to follow, ante-post tips and plenty more in the way of winner-finding features. If you don’t win, you can buy it here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -6.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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