Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Since we’re keeping a close eye on such matters, the going at Ascot remains heavy after another 2mm of rain yesterday, to go with the 42mm that fell there in the previous two days. The good news is that the forecast has dried up a bit, with no more than 2mm to 3mm on any one day from now to Saturday and, so long as that proves accurate, there appears to be no real risk of Champions Day being abandoned.
I find it a bit odd that there should be “no contingency plans in place” for the card in the event of abandonment, as reported by the Racing Post his morning. There is £4m in prize money on offer and, for that reason alone, one would imagine that some thought must have been given to what should be done if rain stops play, as happened at Salisbury on Monday.
The obvious option would be to delay to the following Saturday (25 October), which would enormously undermine the Racing Post Trophy, currently the major event on that day. But given that the Trophy takes place at ARC-owned Doncaster and ARC is so terribly out of favour with racing’s power-brokers just now, it might be that there would be little official concern about that.
The following Saturday (1 November) is Breeders’ Cup day and there would be no appetite for staging a Champions Day card in opposition to that, I’d imagine, even without the additional complication that Ascot is supposed to stage a jumps card that day. The Saturday after that is the last day of turf racing in Britain this year and I suppose no one is going to cry about a quality Ascot card competing with the November Handicap at Doncaster or with jumps cards at Sandown, Wincanton and Kelso. The ground will very likely be soft and you will have even more issues than you do now about Flat horses having to be roughed off for the year for various reasons but I suppose if you were desperate to restage Champions Day, you might do it then. But the lack of feasible options is just another factor suggesting that Champions Day is currently too late in the year.
Non-runners will again be a factor today (see them all here) and there have been 17 so far at Nottingham, where the going is heavy in places. Ty Gwr (4.20) has done well in the two big-field handicaps on testing ground that he has previously contested, winning at Leicester last autumn and running second at Doncaster next time.
He is a few pounds higher now but ran a great race when fifth of 22 in the Silver Cambridgeshire on good going last time and I like him at 7-2. Interestingly, his sire, Echo Of Light, is 7/40 with his progeny on heavy going.
There are a few soft-ground types in the following sprint handicap but Megaleka (4.55) looks over-priced at 25-1 with a couple of firms. Her recent form is poor but she gets soft ground for the first time since winning at Catterick in the spring and she won on similar going over this course and distance last November.
Also from the folder marked ‘Looking for a Longshot’, consider Morning With Ivan (3.25) at Wetherby. She almost certainly needed her handicap debut over hurdles at Sedgefield last month under a claimer and can do better with regular rider Wilson Renwick back aboard today.
Morning With Ivan improved through last season to win twice in novice hurdles and comes from the Martin Todhunter yard that is enjoying a burst of productivity, with three winners from 11 runners since the start of September. She’s 33-1 in places.
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Langley House 9-2
Brave Spartacus 7-2
Latin Charm 7-2
Tuesday
Top Billing 11-10
Lucky Lodge 8-1
No Win No Fee 6-1
And our leader is:
goofs +11
... who had No Win No Fee as his third winner of the week. Paragoncup (+9.60), Fixxxer and Sportingbest (both +7.50) come next.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.25 Wetherby, 4.10 Lingfield, 4.20 Nottingham.
This week’s prize is a copy of Timeform’s Chasers & Hurdlers 2013/14, the treasured annual from the long-established ratings firm, retailing at £75 and running to more than 1,000 pages. Each horse that ran last season is described and rated, while there are extended essays on 80 or so of the bigger names, in which Timeform’s writers reflect on the talking points thrown up by the last 12 months. If you don’t win this excellent prize, you can buy it here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -6.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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