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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Chris Cook and Tony Paley

Talking Horses: best bets for Wednesday plus our tipping competition

Annie Power
Annie Power, pictured at trainer Willie Mullin's stables, will stay over hurdles this season. Photograph: Niall Carson/PA

12.30pm Top-class racemare Annie Power will stay over hurdles

Tony Paley: Trainer Willie Mullins revealed on Wednesday morning that his top-class racemare Annie Power, whose only defeat in her 12-race career came when beaten by More Of That in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, is to stay hurdling this season.

Mullins told the Racing Post: “We’ve decided that Annie Power will be campaigned over hurdles rather than fences this season. There are lots of opportunities for her over different distances - the OLBG Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham, which is now a Grade 1, being one of them.

“However, we’re not specifying any long-term targets for her at this stage. We’ll see how things go and she will have plenty of options through the season. While we were discussing what to do, we entered her up for a few races including the Fighting Fifth Hurdle and the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle but there are no definite plans for her first run of the season just yet. We’ll wait until she is ready.”

Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook

We’ve talked before in this space about the oddity that so many stats are available in racing, especially through the Racing Post, but that no one publishes stats on how often individual jump jockeys fall or are unseated. Well, Timeform have had a go at it and you can read the outcome here.

Clearly there are lots of caveats, starting with the fact that some jockeys get a better standard of horse to ride than others. Some jockeys regularly take part in very competitive races while others are more often employed in small-field, low-value races in which fallers are less likely.

But this is a start. You can pore over the numbers and consider what they may tell us. If only some outlet would commit to keeping tabs on such stats from day to day. If a jockey is unseated for the fourth time that month, or if he has a particuarly bad record for falling at one track, it would be worth knowing these things.

By the way, after my speculation on here yesterday that Shutthefrontdoor was perhaps being aimed at Grade Ones rather than handicaps, Jonjo O’Neill told us at a press day that the horse will run next in the Lexus Chase over Christmas, Ireland’s equivalent of the King George. If he does well enough, he’ll be a Gold Cup candidate. You can still get 25-1 for the Cheltenham race and I think that’s a good price.

Yesterday, I picked out a couple of interesting horses on their chasing debuts and both fell. Is it mad, in the circumstances, to try the same thing again?

Possibly. But I like Ballyculla (2.10), who at least has had the experience of winning a point to point in Ireland. Briefly with Henrietta Knight at the start of his British career, he did well over hurdles for Warren Greatrex and put up one of his best performances in victory at Exeter, where he returns today for his first stab at chasing. He should be good at it, Greatrex is absolutely flying along and 3-1 is fair.

In the following handicap hurdle, Baby King (2.40) is easy to like at 15-8 on his debut for Tom George, another trainer doing well just now. This five-year-old won a big-field maiden hurdle on his only start in Ireland.

Both selections should cope fine with deep going, which is going to be important today at Exeter, where there is apparently some standing water.

Tipping competition, day three

Our winners so far:

Monday

Shutthefrontdoor 2-1

Shouldavboughtgold 11-4

Nigel’s Destiny 7-4

Tuesday

Darna 7-2

Ned Stark 2-1

Jukebox Melody 7-1

And our leader is:

kingklynch +8.25

... who has had four out of six so far. Cheriton (+5) and 15244 (+4.25) are hacking along just behind the pace.

Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.00 Bangor, 3.40 Exeter, 4.50 Kempton.

This week, we’re offering a second chance to win a copy of Cheltenham Et Al, The Best Of Alistair Down, a newly published collection of the best columns by the Racing Post man who sadly no longer adorns our screens on Channel 4. The book is “by turns moving, uplifting and laugh-out-loud funny,” says the blurb. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.

As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -6.

In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.

For terms and conditions click here.

Good luck!

Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.

And post your tips or racing-related comments below.

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