Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Alas for John Gosden, who said this week that he didn’t want a wide draw for Jack Hobbs in the Champion Stakes but has ended up with 12 out of 13. The only horse drawn wider is Maverick Wave, trained by . . . John Gosden! Some guys just can’t catch a break.
But Golden Horn beat a strong field in the Arc from a wide draw and Jack Hobbs will still have his chance. I have seen statistics to back up the trainer’s belief that a wide draw is a disadvantage over 10 furlongs at Ascot but the races that produced those numbers would include a lot of handicaps, in which the margins between the runners are small and the draw can make a critical difference. In a Group One like the Champion Stakes, there’s reason to hope that the best horse will be revealed to us.
Gleneagles has been declared for the QEII but that does not end the question of whether he might actually run for the first time since June. Aidan O’Brien is expected to walk the track, possibly tomorrow, before deciding whether the ground is suitable.
Of the 90 horses declared for Ascot on Saturday, only Gleneagles has not raced in the past 100 days. I admire O’Brien, as we all do, and I’m aware of the risks that go with running a horse in conditions that don’t suit. It is still a great pity that such a talented beast has been handled with such suffocating tenderness.
Spring Loaded (7.45) is the day’s nap, Paul D’Arcy’s three-year-old having been so impressive with the way he travelled and quickened at Kempton last week. A penalty for that shouldn’t stop him and he has a low draw that should help John Egan find a good early position.
This is his first all-weather run away from Kempton, which can be a specialist’s track, and perhaps going left around Chelmsford will not suit so well. But he looks adaptable to me, having put up a career best on softish turf at Ascot in September, and 11-8 is fair.
Jacob’s Pillow (5.50) is the interesting one at Brighton, an 11-1 shot making his first start for Michael Appleby after landing a claimer last time on his first outing for Rebecca Bastiman. Aged four, he spent his first two seasons with William Haggas, his rating peaking at a point 13lb higher than the one he has now. It looks as though the drop in class helped him last time and that may again be a factor here. Five furlongs on ground with some give could prove ideal.
Guanciale (4.05) may be overpriced at 14-1 for a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter. The eight-year-old is only 1lb higher than when landing a similar race last November on his first run after a five-month break and first time up may be the time to catch him, especially with his trainer, Dai Burchell, getting winners recently.
Jumps fans will be keeping an eye on Punchestown, as Don Cossack makes his return to action in the Daily Star Chase at 4.30pm. The winner of the Punchestown Gold Cup when last seen in April, Gordon Elliott’s horse is a Cheltenham Gold Cup contender now, though he may well need this run. Can you believe it, it’s 10 years since Kicking King got turned over by War Of Attrition in this race. Seems like the other day.
Tipping competition, day four
Our winners so far:
Monday
Deeds Not Words 8-1
Wet Sail 6-1
Ghinia 5-1
Tuesday
Dinkum Diamond 9-1
Presence Felt 11-4
Pea Shooter 11-2
Wednesday
Village Vic 11-4
Lahayeb 7-2
Skinny Love 9-1
And our leader is. . .
16heathermac01 +20
... whose lead was shored up by Village Vic yesterday. Harrytheactor (+14.50) and ken_taylor (+14.25) give chase. Waltersobchak and Ken Woodward (both +11) were among the four to find Skinny Love.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.30 Uttoxeter, 5.00 Carlisle, 5.20 Brighton.
This week’s prize is a copy of the newly published Chasers & Hurdlers annual from Timeform, a hefty tome that is treasured by fans of the winter game and, at £75, is one of the most valuable prizes we ever offer on here. This year’s volume contains an appreciation of Tony McCoy’s career as well as reflections on SP over-round for the Grand National (“scandalous” says Timeform) and the length of time the BHA takes over corruption cases. If you don’t win this week, you can buy a copy here or read a sample here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
Good luck!
For terms and conditions click here.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
