The weather forecast is a good deal better for Goodwood on Thursday afternoon after a day when the track received as much rain in a day as it would normally expect in the whole of August, but the damage has already been done. The going is officially soft, heavy in places and there are already 22 non-runners spread across the seven races, a quarter of the original 88 horses declared.
Three significant contenders – Wuheida, Shutter Speed and Nezwaah – are out of what was originally a nine-runner field for Thursday’s Group One Nassau Stakes, but at the time of writing, Aidan O’Brien’s Winter (3.35) is still on course to her fourth Group One of the season.
The fact that she is stepping up to a mile-and-a-quarter and meeting older horses for the first time in such demanding conditions also means that Winter is available at odds-against. That looks like a price worth taking, as she has several pounds in hand of her older rivals at the weights, has room for further progress after just seven starts and settled like an old-timer in the Coronation Stakes last time out.
The dramatic change in the ground has thrown the entire meeting into confusion for betting purposes and there are bear traps all over Thursday’s card even with the reduced fields. One runner that does make some appeal at a big price, though, is Hughie Morrison’s Rumpole (1.50) in the first race on the card.
Rumpole was available at 20-1 and bigger on Wednesday evening, and while he is now down to 14-1 after five opponents were taken out, he still has plenty going for him in Thursday’s race, including an excellent run on good-to-soft ground at Doncaster in June. He came up just short when well backed for a race on good-to-firm at Windsor last time out, but is still well handicapped on his earlier form and also seems likely to improve for a step up to 10 furlongs. A draw in stall four is also helpful with several of the market leaders out wide.
Headway (3.00) has not faced anything like today’s conditions in his three starts to date, but his form when second in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot is a match for anything in the field for the Richmond Stakes and he could be overpriced at around 7-2, while Dubka (2.25), who does have form with some cut, also makes some appeal at around 6-1 in the Lillie Langtry.
Thursday’s tips
Goodwood 1.50 Rumpole (nap) 2.25 Dubka 3.00 Headway (nb) 3.35 Winter 4.10 Veejay 4.45 Roulette 5.20 Yorkshiredebut
Nottingham 2.10 Mother Of Dragons 2.45 Eirene 3.20 Lord Commander 3.55 Badenscoth 4.30 Lexington Law 5.05 Bithynia 5.40 Our Cilla
Stratford 1.30 Daulys Anthem 2.00 Milrow 2.35 Comanche Chieftain 3.10 Raleagh Mountain 3.45 Brave Helios 4.20 Boy In A Bentley 4.55 Cougar’s Gold
Epsom 5.50 Seven Clans 6.25 Milky Way 6.55 Doublet 7.30 Nightingale Valley 8.00 Seduce Me 8.30 Golden Guest
Ffos Las 5.35 Diamond Express 6.10 Brockey Rise 6.40 American History 7.15 The Daley Express 7.45 Alnasl 8.15 Rolling Maul 8.45 Celerity
