Today’s best bets, by Greg Wood
A couple of significant non-runners at Ayr have reduced the competitiveness of the six-race card, Robin Des Mana and Cadeau Du Bresil now absent from the first two events. Both were probable favourites - a certain favourite, in fact, in the case of the latter- and Fattsota, who could have been a value alternative to Ceadeau Du Bresil in the 2.20pm, is now unbackable at long odds-on.
Plumpton looks more attractive as a result and Jerrysback (2.45) is a very interesting debutant for Philip Hobbs in the two-and-a-half mile novice hurdle.
He was bought by JP McManus after winning an Irish point-to-point on 15 October and, while he has no form under Rules, his dam was related to the former Champion Hurdle winner Celtic Shot. Barry Geraghty has made the trip to Sussex for this sole ride and, while the market has naturally picked up on this - Jerrysback is currently trading at around 10-11 - a winning debut does seem to be anticipated.
Yourholidayisover (2.10) is the only runner with any decent recent form in the handicap chase earlier on the card and should follow up his recent win in first-time blinkers, assuming that the headgear retains its effect.
Ballyheigue Bay (3.20) had a heavy fall towards the end of the Southern National at Fontwell last time out but catches the eye at a fair price as he returns to hurdles off a 9lb lower mark, while Royal Salute (3.50), a course-and-distance winner last time out who is up only 4lb in the weights, is another with strong claims.
Playful Dude (4.15) stands out from the crowd on the Fibresand at Southwell. He was a two-length winner off 55 over this course and distance earlier this month and showed improved form to be beaten only a short-head from a 4lb higher mark last week, with the remainder of the field well adrift. Adam Kirby takes over from Callum Shepherd today and the pairing look like very obvious winners.
Crosse Fire is going to win at some stage off his current mark if he can only break on terms, but his habit of giving away several lengths at the start is now so prounounced that Hold On Magnolia (3.05) makes more appeal at the prices in the most competitive race on the card. Cadeaux Pearl (3.40), another whose mark has slipped significantly, could also go well at around 7-1.
GREG WOOD’S MONDAY SELECTIONS
Ayr
1.50 Robin Des Mana 2.20 Fattsota (nb) 2.55 The Last Leg 3.30 Marlee Massie 4.00 Harleys Max 4.35 Better Getalong
Southwell
1.30 Start Seven 2.00 Regarde Moi 2.30 Warm Words 3.05 Hold On Magnolia 3.40 Cadeaux Pearl 4.15 Playful Dude (nap)
Plumpton
1.40 Royal Hall 2.10 Yourholidayisover 2.45 Jerrysback 3.20 Ballyheigue Bay 3.50 Royal Salute 4.25 Royal Etiquette
