Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
There’s nothing like a bit of confidence and Newcastle are certainly showing some of that in their promotion of next month’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle. Judging by this page on their website, track staff believe the race counts as “the highlight of the jumps season”.
The Fighting Fifth was probably the first major jump race I saw with my own eyes, more than 30 years ago, and I have happy memories of Floyd winning it twice. But even while wallowing in nostalgia, I’d hesitate to go quite so far as Newcastle’s marketing folk. I guess they meant “our jumps season”. Oh well, £17 for grandstand and paddock admission on a day like that is a fair offer.
We’re not operating at Grade One level today, of course, but we do have some jumping at Ayr, where there might be some value in the 17-2 about More Madness (3.05). Supporting this nine-year-old might actually be a form of madness, since his career score is 2/49 and 0/19 over hurdles but it’s just possible that he’s been enlivened by the switch to Middleham trainer Julia Brooke.
Brooke, mother of the jockey Henry, has had her licence for a couple of years and has put together a useful 18% strike-rate in hurdle races. More Madness joined her in the summer from the Nick Alexander yard, which has had a couple of lean spells in the last two or three years, and hinted at possibilities when third at Hexham last time.
He travelled like the winner for much of that race before finding little, which has happened before. But some of his best form makes him very interesting off this sort of mark and perhaps this flatter circuit will help him get home, along with the 7lb claimed by Ross Turner, who has had four winners for Brooke this summer.
In the second at Leicester, Breaking Free (2.10) is overpriced at 10-1, with the John Quinn yard flying along again. He was never nearer when fourth at Catterick last time and the extra furlong ought to help, while the refitted visor may mean he doesn’t give up quite so much ground in the early stages. Jack Garritty rides for the first time and has a much better strike-rate for the yard (22%) than Cam Hardie (6%), who has been on the chestnut for its last two starts.
The far side has been the place to be on Redcar’s straight course and I hope that will again prove true today, since Bold Spirit (5.00) is drawn against that rail. His two wins this year have been over six furlongs on some cut, which he has again today, and he’s only 2lb higher than for his latest win. He’s 8-1 in a big field.
Oh and Harzand’s been retired. It’s hardly a shock as Derby winners so often go to stud at the end of their three-year-old season and the Aga Khan in particular likes to get his good racehorses into the stud programme at an early stage. It’s a pity, of course, because I tend to think that such a strong stayer would have more to offer in future years but he did seem to need a bit of cut to keep tabs on the faster types and those horses can be hard to place on the Flat.
No one is more aware of that than Harzand’s trainer, Dermot Weld, who has had a nightmare this year with an older horse who prefers some cut, Fascinating Rock. Weld’s plan was to skip the summer and come back for the autumn. It turned out that Fascinating Rock would have got his ground in the Eclipse in early July. When he came back in time for the Irish Champion, his blood was wrong and then the ground was too dry for him at Ascot on Champions Day. Fast ground is all but inevitable in California and Hong Kong so it looks like his year is over, to the frustration of all concerned.
We are no longer able to continue with competitions every week, but they will still run in the biggest weeks (Cheltenham, Aintree, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and maybe one or two others, as well as the Christmas quiz).
We’ll still have a Talking Horses each day for tips, analysis and news, so we very much hope you’ll join us to chew over whatever racing happens to be going on and post your tips or racing-related comments below.
