Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
So it seems that some of you lot may actually have paid attention to something I wrote, since the odds available about Shutthefrontdoor for the Grand National have crashed since I talked about him in this space on Tuesday. I pointed out that he was Tony McCoy’s probable mount and suggested the available 20-1 “may come under pressure in the next week”.
It did indeed come under pressure on Tuesday and was then obliterated on Wednesday. The best you can get now is 14-1 and the major High Street firms have gone 12s. Shutthefrontdoor is even 10-1 in a couple of places.
All joshing aside, I really hope that some of you have got a few quid on at 20s. That would certainly put you in a better position than me, since I thought the price might last until the weights for the National are unveiled next week. When the 20s went, I was too cross to take 16s and now that’s gone as well, so I shall just have to pout on the sidelines until it wins and makes you all rich.
I think there might be a quicker route to profiting from a McCoy mount, in any case, since Staff Sergeant (1.15) is backable at 6-4 for Fakenham’s opener. This, to me, has the look of what might be called a ‘Jim Best special’, involving a horse who was talented on the Flat but has been given a low rating over hurdles after getting repeatedly stuffed in novice races, now making his handicap debut in that sphere after a significant layoff.
Staff Sergeant won five times on the Flat, including as recently as last year, off a mark of 70. In the ordinary course of events, one would expect such a horse to be competitive over hurdles from a mark above 100 but he gets to run off 89 after being well beaten in three quick runs for Best last summer, after leaving Michael Appleby.
Given Best’s record, I should think there is a fair chance he has since found the key to Staff Sergeant and we can probably expect a better showing in handicap company. The booking of McCoy seems significant, since the champ is 38/98 for a level-stakes profit when riding for Best in recent seasons. Brendan Powell and Mattie Batchelor, the two jockeys who rode Staff Sergeant in novice hurdles, are a combined 1/80 for Best in that time. I like Powell as a jockey and Batchelor also has his skills but it seems that Best generally likes to reach for McCoy when he feels a horse has a good opportunity.
Sandown stages an enjoyable card and, for once, it is possible to care about the Royal Artillery Gold Cup, in which Guy Disney will become the first man to ride over fences in Britain with a prosthetic limb. He lost half of one leg while serving in Afghanistan in 2009, when the vehicle in which he was travelling was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade. He must be an extraordinarily brave man.
My main betting interest is in the earlier novice hurdle, in which Saint Lucy (2.30) looks too big at 8-1. She stayed on dourly when second at Catterick last time, a major step up on what she had done before, and seems likely to appreciate the extra half-mile. She was just a length and a half behind Intense Tango last time and that filly has since won a Grade Two by three lengths. She comes from the in-form Jonjo O’Neill yard.
Noble Friend (4.15) is interesting at 12-1 for the two-mile handicap chase, despite his career record of 0/17. I think he should make a chaser and there are reasons why he has been stuffed on his two attempts so far. He has been competitive off this mark over hurdles when granted a decent surface and he looks likely to get that today, even allowing for the risk of rain this afternoon. The first-time tongue tie may also help. It looks a very open contest.
BoyleSports tipping competition, day five
Our winners so far:
Monday
Dewala 2-1
Saint Are 9-4
Catchin Time 3-1
Tuesday
Always Bold 13-2
Yes Tom 2-1
Try It Sometime 9-2
Wednesday
Urban Kode 3-1
Lights Of Broadway 10-1
Nordic Nymph 4-6
Thursday
Glingerburn 14-5
Definite Future 6-1
Warriors Tale 9-2
And our leader is. . .
orso +30.92
. . . who has made Talking Horses history this week but was finally winnerless on Thursday. Was he taking a breather or is he stopping to nothing on the run-in? He’s been out there on his own for so long . . . Other good scores: 23skidoo +18.72, BearRides +14.92, Shrewdette +10.50, chris1623 +9.50, Fixxxer +7.75, PHILYERBOOTS +6.50, Ormrod76 +6.25.
For today’s thrilling climax, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.30 Sandown, 4.15 Sandown, 4.45 Sandown.
This week’s prize, kindly offered by those sporting fellas at Boylesports, is a £25 ante-post bet on a race of your choosing at the Cheltenham Festival (provided it’s one of the 15 on which Boylesports are taking bets just now). The bet must be placed by Saturday 21 February.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -12.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day (TODAY).
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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