The first afternoon at Glorious Goodwood was little short of a disaster for the punters, with complete “skinners” for the bookies in three of the seven races, defeat for the hugely popular Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup and only one successful favourite.
I’ve now been a (very) regular racegoer for about 30 years, and I’m sure that I can remember every one of the 100-1 winners I’ve seen in that time, including Mon Mome in the Grand National and Norton’s Coin in the Gold Cup, Morning Post in the sales race at the Leger meeting a few years ago and even The Dragon Master in a novice chase at Sandown in the early 1990s. I’m also fairly certain that I have never seen a 100-1 winner and a 50-1 winner on the same card, never mind with a 33-1 shot thrown in for good measure.
It was the sort of afternoon that makes you wonder if the form book is a waste of time, and racing – at Goodwood at least – is all just random. Thankfully, however, the Group 1 Sussex Stakes should restore a little order to proceedings this afternoon, when Ribchester’s meeting with Churchill with the one-mile championship of Europe up for grabs promises to be the highlight of the week. The only real concern is that rain is now forecast for the track at lunchtime rather than after racing, but it remains to be seen how much will arrive and whether in sufficient quantity to affect the going – which is now good all over - or the race itself.
Ribchester, the Queen Anne Stakes winner at Royal Ascot in June, was a fast-finishing third in this race last year and has improved significantly since, so his position as favourite at around 11-10 is understandable. If Churchill (3.35) is back to the form of his Guineas wins at Newmarket and the Curragh, however, he will be a real handful for the favourite, and if anyone can get Churchill back to his best after his sub-par run at Royal Ascot last time, it is Aidan O’Brien.
The fast ground is one possible excuse for Churchill’s flat performance at the Royal meeting, while the effort of winning two Classics in the space of a month might also have taken the edge off him. After a six-week break, a return to the form of his win in Ireland in particular would take him very close, and a price of around 2-1 is too big.
Ryan Moore, Churchill’s jockey, will ride Wesley Ward’s Happy Like A Fool, the beaten favourite in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes, rather than Battle Of Jericho, O’Brien’s runner in the race. Happy Like A Fool was a clear second-best behind Heartache at Ascot, however, and could struggle to contain Karl Burke’s tough and progressive Havana Grey (3.00).
Hawkerland (1.50) will take all the beating in the opening stayers’ handicap. Marcus Tregoning’s gelding won on his handicap debut over a mile-and-a-half at Yarmouth in June and progressed again to win over a mile-and-three-quarters at Chepstow in early July. He is just 5lb higher here and could easily find further significant improvement for another step up in trip.
Hochfeld (2.25), who is around 11-1 for the 12-furlong handicap for three-year-olds, may have been written off a little too quickly by the market after his winning run was stopped by Tor last time out, while Cenotaph (5..50) is also interesting in the finale. Aidan O’Brien has very few handicap runners in Britain but he has saddled three winners from 16 starters since 2015 and the five-year-old ran his best race of the season when fourth at the Curragh last time out.
1.30pm update: The conditions here at Goodwood have deteriorated steadily during the morning, and there is no hint at present that the rain will relent during racing. As a result, the going is now officially good-to-soft all round, but the way things are going, it will be soft by the time of the Sussex Stakes at 3.35.
The most high-profile absentee so far as a result of the change in the going is the American-trained Happy Like A Fool, the runner-up in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. She would have been Wesley Ward’s first runner at Goodwood.
Greg Wood’s Wednesday tips
Goodwood
1.50 Hawkerland (nap) 2.25 Hochfeld (nb) 3.00 Havana Grey 3.35 Churchill 4.10Lady Dancealot 4.45 Ebbesbourne 5.50 Cenotaph
Leicester
5.55 Yafta 6.30 Josh The Plod 7.05 Meshaykh 7.40 Collateral Beauty 8.10 Gaval8.40 Time To Sea
Perth
2.15 Air Squadron 2.50 Welcome Ben 3.25 Mirsaale 4.00 Red Spinner 4.35 Thorpe5.10 Swingbridge 5.40 Handy Hollow
Redcar
2.00 Global Passion 2.35 Caridade 3.10 Chant 3.45 Zealous 4.20 Raselasad 4.55State Residence 5.30 Yes You 6.05 Eium Mac
Sandown
5.45 Sandy Shores 6.20 Shania Says 6.55 Connect 7.25 Frank Brdige 7.55 Kath’s Legacy 8.25 Precision
