Big Orange has drifted a little this morning for the first running of the Goodwood Cup as a Group 1 race, from odds-on on Monday evening to a top price of evens with several firms, including a handful who might actually lay more than tuppence ha’penny. It remains a very lopsided market, however, with every other horse in the 14-strong field on offer at double-figure odds since the chances arrayed against Michael Bell’s gelding are all seen as much of a muchness.
The fact that there is still a mention of “soft” in the going this morning – it is officially good, good-to-soft in places – is the main point that puts me off Big Orange at the prices on offer. His record speaks for itself, at this track in particular, but Bell’s post-race comments after his wins tend to refer to what a monster he is on really fast summer ground. On good going, an all-the-way success, even at a track that favours frontrunners, may be a more difficult trick to pull off.
Big Orange is still the most likely winner but the one I like against him at the prices is Stradivarius, the winner of the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last time out. John Gosden’s runner has improved with every step up in trip this season and showed a little class to work his way to the front in his latest race. He needs to find more to trouble Big Orange today; 11-1 is a very fair price for him to do so.
Boom The Groom (4.45) will need a little luck in running to win the five-furlong sprint for the second year running but he will get the fierce pace he needs to show his best and had been building towards a big run in his recent starts.
Librisa Breeze (3.00) has progressed from handicapper to Pattern horse over the last 12 months and can underline his improvement in the Lennox Stakes, while the lightly raced Garcia (1.50) made an excellent return to action in the John Smith’s Cup last time out and will surely go close in the opening handicap.
Tips for Tuesday’s races
Goodwood
1.50 Garcia 2.25 Seahenge 3.00 Librisa Breeze (nb) 3.35 Stradivarius 4.10 Algam 4.45 Boom The Groom (nap) 5.15 Ghadaayer
Beverley
2.00 International Man 2.35 Cool Music 3.10 Arcavallo 3.45 Musharrif 4.20 Zodiakos 4.55 Relight My Fire 5.30 John Caesar 6.00 Indian Chief
Yarmouth
1.40 Midnight Wilde 2.15 Hope Is High 2.50 Retribution 3.25 The Yellow Bus 4.00 Anna Medici 4.30 Tigerfish 5.00 Huntsmans Close 5.35 Nag’s Wag
Perth
5.50 Man Look 6.20 Chieftain’s Choice 6.55 An Fear Ciuin 7.30 Russian Regent 8.00 Pinotage 8.30 Cuirassier Dempire 9.00 River Icon
Worcester
5.05 Cole Harden 5.40 Abidjan 6.10 Viking Mistress 6.40 Supreme Steel 7.15 State The Obvious 7.50 Poetic Lady 8.20 Amanto
