Enable received an appreciative round of applause as she cantered to an easy success at 1-4 in Thursday’s Yorkshire Oaks, and rightly so. There will not be a better racehorse on the Knavesmire this year, and it is very possible that she will not race in Britain again.
But the lifeblood of racing is competition, and the result was not in doubt at any stage. Today’s Nunthorpe Stakes, on the other hand, could well go to the final stride, as Lady Aurelia and Battaash go flat out for five furlongs in what promises to be one of the best sprinting head-to-heads for many years.
Both of the main contenders in today’s speed duel are three-year-olds, but Lady Aurelia is very much the old hand, having won the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot last year. Battaash, by contrast, has progressed rapidly in his three starts this year after a juvenile campaign with a single success in five starts, and a gelding operation to curb his headstrong tendencies.
The evidence of their form this year is that both horses should be able to get down the straight at York within a fraction of a second of each other, and the market is struggling to separate them, with Lady Aurelia, who took the King’s Stand Stakes at this year’s Royal meeting, trading at 13-8 overnight, a fraction of a point shorter than Battaash on 7-4.
Every punter will have their own idea of how to separate them, and some may even prefer an each-way punt on one of their rivals, whose prices start at around 12-1 since the big two dominate the betting. My personal suspicion, though, is that Battaash (3.35) should really have the edge in the market, and will do so in the race as well.
Lady Aurelia was undeniably brilliant at Royal Ascot, but she has not seen a racecourse since and had, like all of her trainer’s runners there, been primed to run the race of her life in mid-June. Wesley Ward has now saddled nine winners from 47 starters at the Royal meeting since 2009, but his record in Britain in the second half of the year is less impressive – four runners, three of them favourite, and no winners, including Lady Aurelia herself in last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes and Acapulco, the favourite for the Nunthorpe 12 months ago.
Lady Aurelia’s win at Ascot was also recorded on lightning-fast ground, whereas the surface this afternoon will be good at best. Even at her very best, and with conditions in her favour, she would have a fight on her hands against Battaash, who looked exceptional at Goodwood last time out and is probably still improving. At the prices, a bet on Battaash at 7-4 seems the obvious way to go.
Elsewhere on the York card, St Michel (2.25) would have a big chance in the Lonsdale Stakes on his best form and could be overpriced at around 8-1, while the market seems confident that Al Neksh (1.55), at 17-2, will bounce back from a below-par effort last time out. Daban (3.00) has the class to win the City Of York Stakes, while at Newmarket, Slow To Hand (2.40) is interesting at around 3-1 after a much-improved performance in a fast time on his latest start.
Friday’s tips
York
1.55 Al Neksh 2.25 St Michel 3.00 Daban 3.35 Battaash (nap) 4.15 Capital Flight
4.50 Starlight Romance
Newmarket
1.35 Expressiy 2.05 Soliloquy 2.40 Slow To Hand (nb) 3.15 Al Barg 3.45 Maratha 4.20 Dynamic 4.55 Melinoe 5.25 Muscika
Ffos Las
2.15 Foxrush Take Time 2.50 Move Over 3.25 Casement 3.55 Frosting 4.30 Leapt 5.00 Kinglami 5.35 Lady Joanna Vassa
Goodwood
5.10 Island Cloud 5.45 Bowditch 6.15 Chai Chai 6.45 Sussex Ranger 7.15 Black Bess 7.45 Sheikspear
Hamilton
5.30 Kirbec 6.05 I’m Improving 6.35 Cliff Bay 7.05 Clon Coulis 7.35 Donnachies Girl 8.05 Perfect Words
Salisbury
5.15 McDelta 5.50 Bambino Lola 6.20 Sardenya 6.55 Mildenberger 7.25 Bengal Lancer 7.55 The Twisler
