Tony Paley's live blog An early start today with some news and advice. Can't access racing channel Attheraces mind you at present as the office TV is tuned in to ITV4 (the sports desk were watching Rangers v Sporting Lisbon last night). This morning ITV4 is showing UFO, a 70s sci-fi series from the Thunderbirds people when S.H.A.D.O. fought an attempted alien invasion. So much eye shadow, make-up and hair dye -- and that was just the men! Oh to see the perma-tanned visage of Attheraces presenter Matt Chapman, the bastard son of Max Headroom (well at least I've now made the 80s where TV references are concerned).
This is a big day on the betting front. A semi-pro punter acquaintance of mine (so called because his betting pays the mortgage on the semi-detatched) has been telling me for months that Tazbar (2.35) would be winning today at Aintree. You're not going to get mega-rich backing this one (15-8 with your friendly betting shops) but I'm going to stick my neck out and say this is the banker bet of this meeting. Fingers were burnt yesterday when Inglis Drever and Kauto Star were beaten but this one is confidently expected to go in. See our resident expert Ron Cox's analysis below.
Later on in the day a more speculative wager is suggested on Irish Wolf (4.55). You can get 20-1 generally about this beast who I saw win at Fakenham earlier this season. The horse adores Aintree and is well handicapped on his hurdles form.
Aintree clerk of the course has been on to say no more watering will take place. That's good news as it's definitely softer out there than the official good description for the Mildmay (ie not the Grand National track) course at least. Officially it's described as good but Racing Post times expert Dave Edwards has told me that it's good to soft by his calculations so make sure your prospective bets are certain stayers today and tomorrow.
Richard Dunwoody, in the running in the BBC Presenters Stakes following Peter Scudamore being ditched, has just said Master Minded "is the best horse I've ever seen". He is the best horse around now but "the best ever"! Dunwoody rode Desert Orchid for goodness sake. Mr Dunwoody will have to wipe the yolk away if Master Minded is beaten at 1-3 on in the 3.10 race today.
2.00 John Smith's Mildmay Novice Chase Since I saw Albertas Run win at Ascot earlier this year I've always thought this could be just the type for the Grand National eventually. His owner Trevor Hemmings loves having horses readied for tomorrow's big race, and as a lover of fast ground and a good stayer in the making he really fits the bill. He's Ron Cox's tip and is trading at 6-4.
They're off and second favourite Big Buck's is the first to make an error. Roll Along clouts one even harder and Albertas Run makes a bit of a howler. These novice chases are not for the faint-hearted.
Albertas Run gets the full Tony McCoy treatment but isn't good enough on the day and fades into third. McCoy's main rival Ruby Walsh wins on Big Buck's (an annoying name for sub-editors) who suddenly starts going well on the run to the last. Battlecry deserves a lot of credit for leading most of the way and staying on well into second. Big Buck's is on offer at 20-1 to 33-1 for the Gold Cup but can't see him being anywhere near good enough for that and I think it's more likely we'll be seeing the first three in the classy handicap races suchas the Hennessy and the National of course next season.
2.35 Citroen Novice Hurdle Here it is. Banker of the meeting faces the acid test. Tazbar looks a bit dull in his coat according to Racing UK pundit Graham Cunningham but purely based on what this horse has done on the track he should give us a win. Souffleur is the danger and does apparently look very well indeed.
Important hoofnote: My colleague Chris Cook has just informed me that when he spoke to Paul Nicholls this week the trainer informed him that his best bet of the week (aside from the obvious hot-shots Master Minded and Kauto Star and the National) was Pierrot Lunaire and that one is due to run today in the 4.20.
It's early days but not too happy with Tazbar really. Not travelling all that well but there's a long way to go (another circuit in fact) . . .
Gone For Lunch goes for home . . . Tazbar was never going well and is soon under pressure . . . Gone For Lunch bravely fights all the way for Tony McCoy who is in never-say-die mood but he is held off close home by Petitfour. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose Battlecry ran well to finish second in the opener, has a winner here. Twister, who has won it twice before, has four in the National and his horses are obviously in very good form. The Cotswold miserabilist has had a good season all round but his runners are always well worth noting when they hit form. The winner has improved for the step up in trip and as one of the most unexposed in the field will surely only get better. He'll be a very decent chaser in time.
3.10 John Smith's Melling Chase Master Minded up next. The greatest horse Richard Dunwoody has ever seen this one. Well, he makes early blunders but warms up to his task and is there with every chance with a circuit to go. Master Minded cruises up to challenge on the turn for home but is soon beaten after a shocking mistake two out and Voy Por Estedes is the winner. What will Dunwoody say now? This must be a wonderful feeling for Alan King the trainer of the winner who was devastated when Master Minded beat his horse at Newbury earlier this season. Ruby Walsh asked Master Minded for a big leap at the second-last and his mount over-jumped. He went in a few strides and that bad mistake seemed to have a very big impact on the short-priced favourite.
Ruby Walsh reports that his mount simply didn't stay the extra distance but I think my colleague Chris Cook has called it right and the mistake two out has been just as significant a factor. As Richard Pitman pointed out on BBC2 he has never seen a horse take off so early at a fence and was sure the horse was winded when he smashed through the obstacle.
3.45pm John Smith's Topham Chase Here we go oevr the National fences. Fast and furious. What you need most of all over the National fences is an accurate and quick commentary. The Racing UK team got their knickers in a twist yesterday during the Fox Hunters'. Let's hope they do better this time. The starter for tomorrow's Grand National is not happy with the jockeys as they disobey his orders and break the tape. One false start but now they are off.
Forget my comments yesterday about the fences not looking big. It was carnage out there with horses departing left, right and centre. Gwanako, who I am pleased to say I put up on the racing blog last Sunday for this race, is the winner of an eventful heat in which Ruby Walsh partly makes up for his riding of Master Minded with a brilliant display on the winner. Interestingly, Irish Raptor from the Twiston-Davies yard finshes second. Only 11 or 12 finish from 29 runners -- the fences really took their toll and that could be the case with the pace sure to be equally fast tomorrow in the National.
Frightening statistic: only one favourite has won after 11 races so far at the meeting. I hope you are faring better than us here. Meanwhile, can Captain Cee Bee get the ounters out of trouble in the next at the measly odds of 6-5.
4.20pm Littlewoods Top Novice Hurdle Good old Paul Nicholls (via Chris Cook) has given us a winner (see previous comments) with Pierrot Lunaire. Sorry for the delay -- we have been drawing the Guardian sports desk sweepstake. I got Comply Or Die. I am on Cloudy Lane and already and will back Simon and Bewleys Berry (which I can exclusively reveal is Ron Cox's selection) tomorrow.
4.55pm Totepool Handicap Chase Come on Irish Wolf! He's one of the first beaten. Let's move on. Oedipe has this won some way out -- at 20-1. Three Mirrors is second at 25-1. It's a mug's game.
5.30pm John Smith's Mares' Only NH Flat Race No 4, Cait Ni Chaonaigh, means Kate Moss but that well-named runner is not sighted as Carole's Legacy wins at, guess what, 25-1 with Divali Princess second at 40-1. Good luck tomorrow. My best bet for the day is Song Of Songs in the opener.
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