Today's Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown looks more like a trial for the Grand National than for any race at the Cheltenham Festival, with Beef Or Salmon, Hedgehunter and Snowy Morning in the line-up. Snowy Morning was sent off favourite for Newbury's Hennessy in November but fell on the first circuit. That remains his only run over fences since his novice season, as his two subsequent wins have been over hurdles, yet somehow he's second-favourite today and favourite for the Grand National. Clearly, punters are backing him on the basis of his plentiful potential but that can be an expensive habit.
Nickname (3.50) has a rather more solid record, as the winner of eight Graded races over fences. Having suffered only one defeat in his last seven starts, he's available at better than 5-1 today and that's worth taking. This is a step up in trip for him but the way he's been finishing his races on heavy going suggests that will not be a problem. More of a concern is his ability to produce his best form when the going is only yielding but his overall record suggests to me that he's not as ground-dependent as many believe. That also goes for The Listener, a worthy favourite whose lack of pace nonetheless makes him vulnerable to Nickname's finishing kick.
Favourites have an impressive record in Leopardstown's Deloitte Novice Hurdle, with eight successes in the last nine years, but I'm keen to take on today's market-leader. Cork All Star is also favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival but that should change this afternoon, as he has no natural fluency at his obstacles and looks up against it. Two of his rivals here beat him last time out and he has no obvious excuses. Whatuthink (2.15) was the winner that day but, in an illustration of punters' capacity for doublethink, he's only third-favourite, behind the two horses he beat. Forpadydeplasterer, the runner-up, has a brilliant name and looks a fine chasing prospect but, even with an extra quarter-mile today, he may not have the necessary speed to turn that form around. Whatuthink is worth sticking with.
Exeter tips What made Denman's victory in November's Hennessy so impressive was the fact that he was able to win with topweight despite the tacky, cloying, holding ground that saw most horses finish exhausted that day. Two of those he beat, Dream Alliance and Bible Lord, certainly seemed to be feeling the effects of their Newbury exertions when disappointing next time out, but both could bounce back at Exeter today. Dream Alliance (3.00) faces a handful of interesting types in the graduation chase but he was highly progressive before his Welsh National flop and should be able to prove he's the best of this bunch, having had six weeks to recover. Philip Hobbs is trying him in first-time blinkers, which curbs my enthusiasm. Bible Lord (3.30) ran a huge race in the Hennessy until tiring three-out but has since dropped 6lb. The worry for him is inexperienced jockey Mark Grant, whose strike-rate over fences is just 6%.
2.20pm Forpadydeplasterer -- better get used to this name As predicted, Cork All Star let his backers down again, thanks in large part to his clumsy jumping. Forpadydeplasterer took advantage but looked pretty one-paced and is surely a better prospect for fences than hurdles. Something seemed amiss with Whatuthink, who was beaten a long way from home.
3.07pm Off the bar! Dream Alliance put on an impressive show of front-running and had his rivals on the ropes before flooring his own backers by unseating in the home straight, at which point he was 1-5 on Betfair. Crystal D'Ainay plugged on for the win.
3.36pm Bible Lord wins at 11-4 I'm just glad to say I wasn't one of those who doubted the excellent Mark Grant, who did a nice job, albeit on the best horse in the race. Bible Lord got a bit tired on the run to the last but was entitled to in the conditions. He'll be worth a look next time, as he's built to carry weight, though he wouldn't want a tight track.
4pm The Listener wins the Hennessy
Impressive stuff from The Listener, who led throughout and ran on strongly, but not so impressive from the beaten jockeys, who gifted him a big early lead and never looked like getting level with him at any stage. Who did they imagine they were chasing? This horse had won two Grade 1s in Ireland in the past 14 months, including the Lexus over this course and distance last season.
Turko, who chased him from the start, held on for second, with Snowy Morning a close third. Nickname, Rule Supreme and Beef Or Salmon were held up furthest from the pace and never had a chance. The question of whether Nickname can stay this far remains unanswered.
As far as Gold Cup clues are concerned, the result is a boost to backers of Denman, who beat The Listener by four lengths in this season's Lexus.
6.15pm Sensation as bookmakers accused of behaving unreasonably A couple of firms have reacted to the Hennessy by cutting Snowy Morning's price for the Grand National, a truly jaw-dropping piece of cheek, considering all he proved was that he could jump round Leopardstown, not all that fluently. Of his mistake at the third-last, trainer Willie Mullins said: "You have to expect him to do something like that as a second-season novice against older horses."
Quite. So why wouldn't he do something similar in the National?
Snowy Morning is undoubtedly a high-quality staying chaser but he's seriously lacking in experience for the National. It's almost a year since he last won over fences, when he was a novice, and his record in chases this season is now 'F3'. For him to be 6-1 (Blue Square) for Aintree is outrageous. Few horses have ever deserved to be that short for a Grand National, even on the day of the race. This year's contest is two months away.
Tellingly, Snowy Morning is still available at 11-1 on the leading betting exchange. Those firms trying to lay him at single-figure prices (including Totesport) should be ashamed of themselves.
J'Y Vole Hi Barry. J'Y Vole won the P J Moriarty today, showing real determination to fight back after being headed. Mullins said he felt her stamina was in doubt for the Royal & SunAlliance, making the Arkle the more likely target. But he also said that he thought she was better going right-handed, so it's possible he's considering missing the Festival altogether.
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