How typical of m'colleague Ron Cox to put up three winners from three tips and then ask me to follow up the next day. And it's a double-whammy -- Ron has piled on the pressure, while the cold snap has narrowed my options. This afternoon's meeting at Sedgefield has already been frosted off, while a second inspection is in progress at Taunton.
It's a time of year when tipping columns can often read like weather forecasts and I can exclusively reveal that temperatures are due to rise by the weekend, so at least Kempton's exciting Saturday card should be safe.
On that note, perhaps the day's best betting opportunity is Dream Alliance in Saturday's Racing Post Chase. Philip Hobbs confirmed to me just now that the horse is an intended runner for a race the trainer has won three times in the last nine years and at a top price of 20-1 he makes a lot of each-way appeal.
Dream Alliance is still only 6lb higher than the mark from which he was second to Denman in the Hennessy and he looks like the sort to cope well with Kempton's fast, flat three-miles. His poor run in the Welsh National should be ignored. His most recent effort, when sure to win but for unseating three-out at Exeter, was a fairer reflection of his ability.
It looks like a day for favourites at Southwell, the mainstay of our Tuesday afternoon entertainment. The one market-leader I feel like opposing is Little Wing in the last. Jamie Osborne has his string in good form but a mark of 75 looks pretty stiff for this colt, who won a course and distance maiden earlier this month.
I prefer Bold Diva (5.10), who has progressed nicely since the turn of the year and whose last two efforts suggest this track and trip should suit.
Unexpectedly, Karmest (2.10) is available at odds-against on Betfair for the opening apprentice handicap. She was well ridden by today's partner when winning here last month and saw too much daylight when a beaten favourite since.
Silver Hotspur (4.40) has won on three of his last five visits to Southwell and was a little unlucky not to make it four last week. He's just 1lb higher today.
12.40pm Taunton goes ahead
Fabulous Jet (3.20) is the day's nap. This eight-year-old finally got the hang of chasing with an easy success at Hereford last week and, with the Evan Williams yard finding its stride, he should defy a penalty.
Seize a rare chance to back a fancied Paul Nicholls runner who isn't (yet) favourite in Division 2 of the maiden hurdle. Woolcombe Folly (4.20) ran with promise in a couple of decent bumpers but hurdling is supposed to suit him better and his two main rivals have been disappointing.
2.15pm Karmest wins cosily at 5-4
Sean Bushby is two from two on Karmest now and obviously gets on well with her. Indeed, he's yet to win on any other horse.
3.25pm Never in doubt for Fabulous Jet (also 5-4)
A very impressive performance from Fabulous Jet, who shot off as soon as the tapes went up and was quickly 20 lengths clear. Though a bit awkward at some of his fences, partly due to the pace he was going at, he never looked like coming back to the pack. His pursuers looked very ragged by the last, whereas Fabulous Jet ran right to the line and seemed to be loving it.
Considering he did this with a 7lb penalty, the handicapper is going to take pretty severe action.
4.30pm Talking Horses' winning run ends, of course, in heartbreak
Woolcombe Folly (2-1) has just been beaten a short-head at Taunton after looking sure to win at the top of the straight, when he cruised alongside Emerald Wilderness. He frequently lost momentum due to poor hurdling technique and Seven Is My Number stole a lead after jumping the last more fluently. Then Woolcombe Folly produced a strong run that all but got him back in front. Indeed, if Ruby Walsh had had his whip in his right hand, between the horses, he'd probably have done a better job of keeping him straight and would have won. Instead, Seven Is My Number got the verdict on the nod under a nicely judged ride from Timmy Murphy.
Woolcombe Folly looks a future chaser and should do best on galloping tracks.
And we're back . . .
. . . thanks to 11-8 Silver Hotspur at Southwell, where five of today's six races so far have gone to the favourite. Who'd be a bookie?
An inauspicious omen for Bold Diva
Has drifted from 4s out to 13-1 on Betfair ahead of the last at Southwell.
5.13pm Little Wing romps home
Jamie Osborne's charge is clearly progressive and looked the winner from a long way out. Bold Diva never looked like getting into it.
That's three winners from five today, with Dream Alliance to come. Ron's back for the rest of the week -- good luck to all.
Click here for all the day's racecards, form, stats and results.
And click here for today's latest odds.
