This afternoon's Newcastle card has passed a noon inspection and thank goodness, because one of today's best bets is Noble Alan (1.40) in the opening maiden hurdle. The winner of a bumper here in November, he was then a close fourth in a high-quality bumper at Ascot -- the second, fifth and sixth have all won novice hurdles since.
Noble Alan is opposed by a couple of interesting sorts. Ignotus was given no help at all by his inexperienced rider Thomas Thompson at Catterick last time and should have got a lot closer to the winner. Tom Greenall takes over and should do a better job.
Best Prospect was running a decent race when falling at Doncaster last time and is being backed today as though he was likely to win. The problem with that kind of reasoning is that any similar mistake today would put him in trouble again.
Noble Alan is the one and I'm surprised he's as big as 11-4 on Betfair.
Another reason to be thankful Newcastle goes ahead is Ferdy Murphy's classy Another Promise (4.40), making his reappearance in the last. A Grade One winner over fences, he's supposed to be on his way to the Champion Chase, so you'd think he'd have enough pace for a two and a half mile Class 4 handicap hurdle. Following one of this winter's well-established patterns, he's extremely well-in compared to his handicap mark over fences. He runs here on 95, having won off a two-stone higher rating over fences at this track last season.
Aux Le Bahnn (1.30) is the one with potential in Folkestone's opening maiden hurdle. Faced by a motley collection of rivals who are mostly already exposed, he has most to fear from Another Brother, who finished close behind him here last time. It was heavy then, however, compared to today's good to soft and that should suit Aux Le Bahnn better.
Punters look likely to send off Treasury Counsel as favourite for the beginners chase, which is an interesting piece of doublethink, given he got no further than Kempton's second fence on his debut over the bigger obstacles. Polinamix (2.30) became disappointing over hurdles but his best form in that sphere is more than a match for Treasury Counsel's and he ran with a lot of promise behind Arkle favourite Noland last time.
As any NFL quarterback will tell you, sometimes you have to chuck one down the field, and I'm going for glory with 28-1 shot Spendent Spree (4.00) in the handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys. This is one of those races that make you think: "None of these can possibly win," but something has to and Spendent Spree appeared to be getting her act together here last time before fading on soft ground. Generally, I'd see it as a negative that trainer Albert Ennis is without a winner in almost a year. On this occasion, I'm taking the view that he is due a change of luck.
After that race, the professional jocks will clear out of the weighing room, to be replaced by seven men with hardly a chin between them. Yes, it's hunter chase time and the job, as always, is sorting out the moderately capable from the incredibly bad. I'm afraid that Oliver Greenall (younger brother of the aforementioned Tom) may be towards the 'appalling' end of the spectrum. Certainly, he has yet to ride a winner under Rules after 52 attempts, though I understand he is regarded as mustard in the point-to-point world. Possibly this says more about the standard of jockeyship in the average points race than it does about Mr Greenall's ability.
Greenall rides Lou Du Moulin Mas, who certainly has fair claims to being the best horse in the race, but I'm going to bet that he isn't good enough to break his rider's duck. Instead, I'm with Peter Bull, who is two from two round here on Honourable Spider (4.30).
Alexander Huricane (1.50) did the business for us yesterday at Wolverhampton and can defy a penalty at Southwell. The risk is whether he'll take to this much slower surface. Sir Mark Prescott's Tilapia (3.20) will be better for last month's reappearance and steps back up in trip, making Sir Mark Prescott's charge the other bet on the card.
1.45pm A distinctly moderate start
Two races, two places, and both were a tad frustrating.
Aux Le Bahnn looked the likely winner after Another Brother fell, despite being hampered as that happened. He was then done for toe up the straight by Inghwung.
Noble Alan drifted right out from 5-2 to 13-2 in the minutes before the race and it was easy to see why -- he turned out to be pretty clumsy at his hurdles. Even so, he led over the last and looked like winning until his mistakes took their toll and he tired into third. He looks a future chaser.
The winner was Ignotus, which means it's a good start to the day for the Greenall family. I am, of course, hoping that Oliver cannot follow the lead of his brother Tom, rider of Ignotus, when he weighs out for the hunter chase.
Demolishing the crossbar
Having won over 5f on Polytrack yesterday, Alexander Huricane couldn't quite last home over 6f on Fibresand today, despite trading at 1-11 in running on Betfair. Look for him to revert to yesterday's conditions next time.
3.05pm Polinamix won at 15-8
We're on the board, thanks to this useful-looking chaser, who readily outpointed Treasury Counsel and won by 18 lengths.
Well done with Inghwung, Cairo!
Still, it's traditional to post your winning tip before the race.
4.05pm Didn't go for enough of a longshot . . .
. . . in the conditionals handicap hurdle, won by the rank outsider, Fair Dual (Betfair SP 112-1). No more chances for Spendent Spree, pulled up a long way out.
Kudos to the Tote . . .
. . . who also paid 112-1 on Fair Dual, against the bookmakers' SP of 50-1.
And it's congratulations to Oliver Greenall
Contrary to my hopes and expectations, Lou Du Moulin Mas was indeed good enough to carry this rider to his first success under Rules. Greenall looked far from polished on occasion but it has to be admitted that Peter Bull was rougher still.
Betting on hunter chases is for the birds, from now on.
4.53pm Another Promise blows out completely
Returning from a long absence, he was ridden like a good horse, held up and on the outside (presumably in search of better ground) but dropped away quickly as they turned out of the back straight. I'll pass on explanatory quotes from connections, if any such are forthcoming.
5.45pm Murphy sanguine in face of Promise defeat
Here's what trainer Ferdy Murphy had to say after his Champion Chase contender Another Promise flopped on his reappearance in a handicap hurdle today:
""He is perfectly all right. Timmy [Murphy, jockey] said he was happy with him, but when he asked him to quicken up he felt like a three-mile chaser. Obviously he is better over fences, and all our horses are better for a run. We will see how he is in the next few days and then look at our options for Cheltenham. There are handicaps there for him, too. He was a good horse and he is still a good horse."
In fairness to Ferdy, he did say this morning that the horse would be better for the run. Punters, however, disagreed and made him 4-7 favourite.
Opposing him was another good call from you, Cairo. I hope we'll hear from you again tomorrow.
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