With the best Flat meeting of the season just around the corner, most punters will sensibly be keeping stakes to a minimum this week, but when the nap bet of the day is a 14-1 chance, there is no need to wade in too heavily.
Paddy A (3.10), who runs in the third at Yarmouth, is the horse in question, and while I can see why he is priced up at double-figure odds with several lightly-raced runners from big stables in opposition, there are several positives in the case for Charlie McBride’s runner too.
This will be just his third run on turf so he remains unexposed on the surface, the time of his win at Chelmsford earlier in the season was useful and he is just 5lb higher here. He hated the soft ground at Newmarket last time out and will enjoy a much better surface today when – and this could be the clincher – he steps up to a mile-and-a-quarter for the first time. He has looked like a horse who would improve for middle-distances several times already in his racing career, and his pedigree, with plenty of stamina on the dam’s side, backs up that impression.
There is still some cut in the ground at Haydock, where the £14,000 handicap for three-year-olds will catch the eye of many punters. Eight of the 11 runners are priced up at 11-1 or below and again, there are some lightly-raced horses in the field that could improve significantly. Sidewinder (3.00) is not one of those, having been to the track 12 times already, but his last two runs have both been wins over today’s course and distance and the latest of those was a match for anything in his career to date. He is just 4lb higher today and has a live chance at around 8-1.
Ottonian (2.00), the top weight in the opener on the same card, was a ready winner on his debut at Thirsk last month and starts out handicapping on what could be a lenient mark of 80.
Vaulted (4.00) found a little improvement for the step up to seven furlongs on her seasonal debut in May and could be a player at around 7-1 later on the card if she finds a little more for the run, while Brother McGonagall (7.55) and Angel Palanas (8.25) are two to look out for at Hamilton this evening. The latter is a maiden but recorded a decent time at Doncaster first time up this season, gets weight from the entire field and could also be allowed a soft lead. At around 11-1, it’s a chance worth taking.
Tips
Haydock: 2.00 Ottonian 2.30 Dance Diva 3.00 Sidewinder (nb) 3.30 Mutarabby 4.00 Vaulted 4.30 Mutadaffeq 5.00 UAE King
Worcester: 2.20 Cry Fury 2.50 Beneficial Joe 3.20 Captiva Island 3.50 Lake Chapala 4.20 Burrows Lane 4.50 Saffron Wells 5.20 Baby Sherlock 5.50 Kayflin
Yarmouth: 2.10 One Minute 2.40 Zubaidah 3.10 Paddy A (nap) 3.40 Misu Moneypenny 4.10 Hackney Road 4.40 King Oswald 5.10 Lunar Deity
Kempton: 6.10 Believe It 6.40 Sparkalot 7.10 Stylish Dancer 7.40 Orithia 8.10 Ventura Blues 8.40 Twin Point 9.10 Author’s Dream
Hamilton: 5.55 Concur 6.25 Tough Remedy 6.55 Schmooze 7.25 Henley 7.55 Brother McGonagall 8.25 Angel Palanas 8.55 Cheeni
(all times BST)
