Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I dare say none of you need reminding about what a special horse Kauto Star was but the point was reinforced for me yesterday as I contemplated the history of the three races that now make up steeplechasing’s Triple Crown. Any horse that wins the Betfair, the King George and the Cheltenham Gold Cup this season will get a £1m bonus, just as Kauto did when he won all three in 2006-07.
Remarkably, he won two of the three legs in each of the next three seasons and again two seasons after that, in what proved to be his final winter in action. In the decade since the Betfair Chase was invented, the three Triple Crown races have, clearly, been run a total of 30 times; Kauto Star has won 11 of those races. Put together the collective achievements of Silviniaco Conti, Long Run and Imperial Commander and you still only get to nine wins in those events.
Today’s card at Wetherby is another popular staging post on the way to the core jumps season and I’m a bit surprised to see 20-1 about Carrigdhoun (3.50) for the Bobby Renton. Perhaps the bookies are also surprised because some of them went 10-1 when betting started last night and it’s not a great feeling to see your selection so thoroughly ignored by the market.
Encouragement can be drawn from the fact that his trainer, Maurice Barnes, has done well with his small string in recent weeks, winning three times from seven runners since the start of October. Carrigdhoun is only 5lb higher than the mark from which he won his last two handicap chases, including a slightly more valuable event at Haydock in March, when he was allowed to start at 25-1 on his first outing for 17 months.
The 10-year-old is ridden for the first time by the useful 5lb claimer Daragh Bourke, who has a 20% strike-rate over fences and rode a double for Barnes at Hexham recently.
The market speaks more positively about another Barnes runner at Wetherby, Indian Voyage (4.55), who has halved in price to 16-1 for a two-mile handicap chase. This course winner scored on his reappearance a year ago and is back to the same mark here.
The nap runs at Nottingham. Aleator (4.10) is a Sir Mark Prescott three-year-old who may be worth sticking with after taking a big step forward to score at Wolverhampton last time, from just a 6lb lower mark and wearing cheekpieces for the first time. The step back in trip has also helped him and I am not put off by the switch from Polytrack to softish turf, with which he should cope. He’s 13-2.
At 16-1, Free Zone (4.45) may be overpriced for the sprint handicap, given that he has landed a favourable stall on the stands’ side. It’s more than two years since he found the winner’s enclosure but he looks very well treated now and seemed to return to form when second on desperate ground at Ffos Las last time. Autumn seems to be his time of year; he went close in a better race from a higher mark at York last October.
Tipping competition, day two
Our winners so far:
Monday
Deeds Not Words 8-1
Wet Sail 6-1
Ghinia 5-1
Tuesday
Dinkum Diamond 9-1
Presence Felt 11-4
Pea Shooter 11-2
And our leader is. . .
16heathermac01 +19.25
... who has so far had Deeds Not Words, Ghinia, Presence Felt and Pea Shooter! Harrytheactor (+13.75) and TL127 (+13.25) head a considerable posse in pursuit.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.50 Wetherby, 4.10 Nottingham, 8.15 Kempton.
This week’s prize is a copy of the newly published Chasers & Hurdlers annual from Timeform, a hefty tome that is treasured by fans of the winter game and, at £75, is one of the most valuable prizes we ever offer on here. This year’s volume contains an appreciation of Tony McCoy’s career as well as reflections on SP over-round for the Grand National (“scandalous” says Timeform) and the length of time the BHA takes over corruption cases. If you don’t win this week, you can buy a copy here or read a sample here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -6.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
Good luck!
For terms and conditions click here.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
