Newton Abbot off today
Today's meeting at Newton Abbot has been abandoned because the track is waterlogged after 22mm of rain overnight. That leaves us with a typically thrilling afternoon's action on the all-weather at Lingfield, where every finish comes with heartbreak guaranteed. Plus, there's evening racing at Nottingham and Musselburgh.
1.10pm Afternoon tips
You know you're getting old when trainers start looking young. Today's big race at Lingfield features a clash between two fresh-faced scions of racing dynasties in Andrew Balding and Simon Callaghan, both of whom are having excellent seasons.
With a strike-rate of 20%, Balding's year so far is the better of the two and I fancy his Lochstar (4.00) to beat Callaghan's more fancied Expensive Art in the six-furlong handicap.
By a July Cup winner (Anabaa) out of a Nunthorpe winner (Lochsong), you'd have to hope Lochstar would have some zip about him and he won his maiden over this course and distance last year. Off the course for 14 months after that, he needed his return run at Newbury nine days ago. He'll be fitter here, may well prefer Polytrack to turf and is likely to be well treated. Balding has a 26% strike-rate in all-weather handicaps this year, so 8-1 on Betfair seems very fair.
It's hard to imagine most of Lochstar's rivals having so much as an ounce in hand of the handicapper, though Chjimes has won on his last two visits here and looks dangerous.
It's worth taking a moment to admire the record of two trainers with runners in the nursery earlier on the card. Sir Mark Prescott has won with 32% of his runners in such races over the last five years, while Roger Charlton's 28% is barely less impressive. I'm sure both trainers have sometimes complained that their horses are being handicapped according to the stable's reputation, but these stats make it clear that the assessor is not giving their runners enough weight.
Prescott's Predict (3.00) has already won on Polytrack, so I prefer her to Charlton's Fault. Both should improve on their beaten efforts in turf nurseries last time.
2.30pm Hold the front page! It's a winner for Godolphin
It's been a miserable season for the boys in blue but maybe Red Kestrel's unchallenged stroll in that 12-furlong median auction maiden on Polytrack is a sign that they've turned the corner.
3pm Not as predicted
Well, neither Prescott nor Charlton improved their nursery stats there. Predict looked the winner when she moved up to join the leader just before the turn for home but she curled up very tamely when push came to shove. Kirsty Milczarek, who rides these all-weather tracks so well, turned in another good effort on 4-1 shot Ruby Tallulah, giving trainer Nick Littmoden his first winner since May.
4pm Lochstar a non-runner . . .
. . . after getting loose before the start. Typical.
Expensive Art gets home in a photo from the fast-finishing Vintage as Lingfield delivers once more on its unique selling point -- at least one heartbreak per finish. Eddie Ahern, rider of Vintage, was also done in a photo at Wolverhampton yesterday and must be getting paranoid.
5.40pm Tips for tonight
It's surprisingly easy to pick the wrong one in a three-horse race and, in an effort to prove it, I'm going with Pergamon (6.25) in Nottingham's second race tonight. Crackdown, the Mark Johnston-trained odds-on favourite, has much the better form in two runs over 6f but his backers are taking a big risk at those odds about a horse who is stepping up two furlongs and having his first start on soft.
The expensive Pergamon was expected to do better when third over 7f on his debut but these conditions should suit and 7-4 is very fair.
Shadow Bay (7.25) has his first start for Tom Dascombe after winning a seller for Mick Channon last time. If I were Channon, I'd rather not see my horses move to someone as talented as Dascombe. It would be no surprise if Shadow Bay were to prove very fairly treated on this mark and this could be a good time to catch him -- he's 7-2.
Chief Editor (7.55) and Matterofact (8.25) look like the ones who can cope best with conditions in the two sprints that close the Nottingham card.
But the best bet of the night may be Dispol Kylie (6.40) in Musselburgh's 5f nursery. I really thought this filly, the winner of three of her five starts, would be odds-on to see off five maidens, particularly as she has shown she goes well with some cut, but she's 11-8. Her main rival, Majuba, probably needs better going and has looked somewhat less than completely willing -- he's been a beaten favourite twice in four starts, including once when odds-on.
Click here for all the day's racecards, form, stats and results.
And click here for today's latest odds.
