12.30pm Tony Dobbin's last ride today
By tradition, top jockeys are supposed to go out on a winner, so conspiracy theorists will have their eyes glued to the 3.20 at Carlisle today, when Tony Dobbin lines up for the final time. I tipped Akilak against his mount, Ballyvoge, in this morning's paper on the basis that he has better form -- I didn't want to be so cynical as to assume the result was sorted in advance.
But now Akilak is a non-runner, along with two others in the race. They are the only three non-runners at Carlisle so far. Can you see the way this is going?
Tips!
Towcester is far from my favourite track when it comes to having a decent bet -- those last two furlongs always turn out to be so much longer than you'd think, and just long enough for your good thing to be reeled in -- but Realism (4.50) is my pick of the afternoon's action.
The worry about novice hurdles is that you can't always be sure what you're betting against, but it's hard to see many of the others improving enough to be a factor, while Pop and Souriceau are exposed.
Realism has taken really well to hurdles, chasing home Albinus (since third in the Imperial Cup) on his debut before hacking up in a maiden at Newcastle. And he's almost 2-1!
At the other end of the market, The Speaker (2.30) appeals in Towcester's opener. He's not very quick but this track should suit and Seamus Mullins' horses are running into form, as they often do at this time of year.
Russian Sky has ability but disappoints so often that I'm siding with Royal Mackintosh (2.15) to turn him over in Carlisle's first race.
We Have A Dream (2.40) is a very surprising 8-1 on Betfair for Folkestone's second race. Willie Muir's three-year-old likes the soft and has had a warm-up on the all-weather.
Lambourn trainer Mark Usher is flying just now and his Ruling Reef (4.25), who won a selling hurdle at Chepstow on Saturday, can score off bottom weight later on the card.
But the day's best bet comes in the last at Kempton tonight. Power Ballad (9.20) has had her troubles, being a four-year-old with just two career starts, but she impressed when winning her maiden over this course and distance in September. The placed horses both won maidens next time and the chances are that this filly has plenty in hand.
1.30pm Dobbin just 2-7 for farewell success
Thanks to those non-runners, Ballyvoge is just 2-7 on Betfair to give Tony Dobbin a winner on his final ride. And some people clearly think the result is a foregone conclusion -- the pair have been backed at 1-14 to win and 1-25 to place (ie finish first or second, since we're down to five runners). Let's remember that this is a novice chase -- these are crazy prices.
2.25pm You lucky people!
A 4-1 winner to start the day as Royal Mackintosh is nursed home by Brian Harding, with poor old Russian Sky fading out of the frame.
2.35pm The Speaker really is slow
Too slow for that moderate Towcester race, anyway, which was won by Stolen Moments.
2.45pm We Have A Dream wins at 9-2
Nosebleed territory for Talking Horses, a level-stakes profit for the day secured after just three runners, with three to go. Why work?
Dobbin out of luck on penultimate mount
Pulled up on 5-1 fav Fistral. Just Ballyvoge to come.
3.30pm Dobbin wins on final mount . . .
. . . but backers were made to sweat, as Lord Samposin was closing all the way to the line and should have won. Michael McAllister did a terrible job on the runner-up, faffing about with his reins in the final strides when he should have been pushing for all he was worth. It's all grist to the mill for any conspiracy theorists out there, as the second was trained by Maurice Barnes, one of the first trainers to employ Dobbin when he came over from Ireland. There should be a stewards' inquiry but I doubt there will be.
4.40pm Reef sunk
Ruling Reef was beaten a length into third. Alas, Hayley Turner had her too far back before the turn for home and, although they made up a lot of ground, it was too much to ask.
6.30pm Carlisle stewards take action!
It seems I underestimated the stewards at Carlisle, who have found Michael McAlister in breach of the 'non-trier' rules for his beaten effort in Tony Dobbin's last race. McAlister's punishement will be determined by the British Horseracing Authority later this month.
Realism was a disappointing fourth at Towcester. Here's hoping Power Ballad blows the rest away tonight.
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