Today's best bets, by Eddie Fremantle
Ronaldo Des Mottes won smoothly at Sandown on Friday and has his third run over hurdles at Taunton, facing a difficult rival in Nictory Vote (2.50), a Paul Nicholls newcomer from France. What makes Ronaldo's appearance so interesting is that he looks just the type for David Pipe to launch at the Imperial Cup/Cheltenham Festival double that he managed with Gaspara two years ago and just failed to repeat with Ashkazar last year.
This third run is needed to qualify the horse for either the Fred Winter or even the new Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' race at the Festival. Yet that does not mean that Ronaldo Des Mottes is a good thing today, as he must concede 7lb to a horse already rated 124 in Nictory Vote. A close second or narrow win would probably mean Ronaldo would be on course for a crack at the double.
There has been money for Pipe's Quillygham (4.50), who probably needed the run when fading at Exeter first time out on New Year's Day.
Kinkeel (3.20) took an age to get off the mark but Tony Carroll has won with five of his last 17 runners and Kinkeel put up a tremendous performance at Towcester last time, setting a breakneck gallop on that stiff course yet still having enough left to rally on the run-in. He is up in class in this handicap chase but still appeals as a solid each-way bet.
On a good card at Southwell, Radestky March (3.00) can prove that his Fontwell win was no fluke in the staying novice chase. Stablemate Carruthers' recent Ascot jaunt increases confidence in Mark Bradstock's lightly raced animal, who should be suited by the left-handed course and is surprisingly big at around 14-1 on Betfair this morning.
But the best bet of the day is in Wolverhampton's opener. Young Ivanhoe (2.10) won first time out at Lingfield for Chris Dwyer last year off a mark of 74. He lost his form later on but returns in this 0-45 classified event with Barry McHugh taking off a further 7lb. Even a reproduction of his sixth at Great Leighs in October off 50 would give him a good chance and, if he is anywhere near the Lingfield form, it will be a cakewalk.
It is surprising to see Methaaly (4.40) trading at above 20-1 because there are several reasons for thinking he has strong claims. He will be fresher than most of the field, has decent claimer Dean Heslop on board, what looks like a good draw in stall five and is back to his best trip after pulling hard over a furlong further last time. Heslop's claim means that he is 11lb better with Flowing Cape on their running last time, yet that opponent is around a quarter of the price.
Tipping competition, day two
Almost half the field are in profit after a winner-filled first day, largely thanks to Carrickboy (11-4), another winner from the Venetia Williams winner factory. Millreef and gashead1105 combined that one with 8-1 shot Overlady for a first-day double, while Pomme paired him with Agilete (5-1).
Today, we're looking for your tips, please, in these races: 4.00 Southwell, 4.40 Wolverhampton and the 4.50 Taunton. As ever, the aim is to make the best profit over the week in our nominated races, to a notional £1 stake at starting price. New entrants are welcome today, but they must start on -3.
This week's champion tipster wins a copy of 'Classic Horse Racing Quotes' by Graham Sharpe. Good luck!
Standings after day one
millreef +9.75
gashead1105 +9.75
Pomme +6.75
Vardini +6
23skidoo +6
willbeckwith +6
weejohn1974 +3
coma88 +3
mike65ie +0.75
suckzinclee +0.75
15244 +0.75
Mai11 +0.75
xwireman +0.75
keepitdusty +0.75
Harrytheactor +0.75
lasramblas +0.75
Rivercity +0.75
05times +0.75
StarvnMarvn +0.75
pajocan -3
JD72 -3
Blitzwing -3
Hotspur61 -3
slackdad38 -3
km68 -3
Moscow08 -3
WalkerTrader -3
JBeau18 -3
JDK1 -3
Bodkin01 -3
johnny909 -3
Viejo -3
MillieJ -3
RickyVillasBeard -3
sangfroid -3
Moremoneythantalent -3
johne5knuckle -3
nerium -3
DrKelso -3
Live updates, by Chris Cook
12.35pm Hi gashead
Funny you should mention that. The After Timer piece on the World Hurdle was held up by, er, technical difficulties and will be posted later today. I'll put a link in here when it goes up.
2.45pm Traffic Control in the 4.30
Hi johne5knuckle and mike65ie, interesting horse this. As you say, mike, he was expensive, being sold for £130,000 last spring. He was well backed on his first run for these connections in a Towcester bumper in November, but got tired in the last furlong and finished seventh.
He faded again on his hurdles debut at Newbury last month but showed a lot of promise to be sixth in a race that has worked out well — the second and fourth have won since, while the third would have done but for a late fall. Even the eighth has since been a close second in a handicap.
Southwell is a lot less demanding than Newbury and the ground is not so soft today but the step up in trip to three miles from two and a half is off-putting for a horse with his profile of racing freely. It's a weak race and he looks promising but 7-2 is hardly generous and the money is coming for Minella Theatre now.
3pm A famous Nictory for Eddie
Nictory Vote (9-4) turned over the odds-on Ronaldo Des Mottes at Taunton, as predicted by Eddie, above, this morning. A big sort who will surely be a chaser in time, he galloped on strongly for Ruby Walsh to win on his British debut by a shade under four lengths.
Sadly, Young Ivanhoe was not quite so resilient at Wolverhampton. Having hit the front a furlong out, he tired and got passed by three rivals, missing out on a place by a head. Radetsky March also went well for a long way at Southwell before fading in the race won by Best Actor (20-1).
4.30pm Oscardeal is a skinner
Unsurprisingly, no one came up with Oscardeal, the 40-1 winner of our first tipping race today. Charlie Pogson's runner (form figures: 0/6-P0) pipped Laustra Bad in a head-bobbing finish at Southwell, so the relative standings remain exactly as they were.
As 23skidoo has hinted, Rose Dobbin was unseated from the useful Middleton Dene at an early stage, but for which she may well have won a pretty rotten-looking race. I'm not sure that one was down to the rider's inadequacy, though, Mr Skidoo - a lot of jockeys would have come off the horse if it made a mistake like that.
4.50pm Traffic backers in a jam
Traffic Control ran to form, shooting off in front and showing great promise before tiring late on. He was a long way clear at the second-last, at which Minella Theatre made a mistake, but that one rallied and Traffic Control had run himself out. Minella Theatre (11-8) was in front by the last.
Traffic Control was traded at a low of 1-14 in running on Betfair, an expensive lesson for someone.
5pm Another skinner
To miss a 40-1 winner is unfortunate. To miss a 7-2 winner in the next race looks like carelessness. Every one of you failed to spot Flowing Cape in the second of our tipping races, at Wolverhampton, when he held off Methaaly (14-1), tipped by Eddie this morning.
Here's hoping someone has better luck at Taunton.
5.15pm We're off the mark for the day . . .
Quillygham (9-2) ran away with the handicap hurdle at Taunton and, hooray, he was picked by - mike65ie, km68, Bodkin01, Blitzwing, JDK1, RickyVillasBeard, willbeckwith, 05times (twice) and TheVic. Sadly, MillieJ's quest for a chicken dinner continues.
Willbeckwith is now top but the lead is narrow. Updated standings will be in tomorrow's edition of Talking Horses, along with three more races.
My mistake, 23skidoo. I get so used to reading abuse directed at Mrs Dobbin on the forum attached to a certain betting exchange. I'm sure we can all agree that she's made the odd mistake but she's better than a lot of amateurs out there, as anyone who saw the hunter chase at Taunton can confirm.
6.05pm World Hurdle analysed
Our latest edition of Cheltenham Festival after-timer is now online for gashead and whoever else is interested. I'm afraid the only real negative I can see about Kasbah Bliss is the shortness of the odds.
Click here for all the day's racecards, form, stats and results.
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