For the second Sunday running the suggestion is to jump on the Racing Post Pricewise bandwagon this morning. Readers of Saturday's Horse Sense column in the Guardian will know there is plenty of stable confidence behind 2.10pm Sweet Kiln at Fairyhouse this afternoon. That confidence will have grown after the continued rain that has turned the ground there heavy. For 'heavy' in Ireland read virtually unraceable elsewhere. The bookmakers put their prices up for today's race before they knew the extent of the rain that fell and the 3-1 available this morning with a number of layers, including William Hill from the Big Three, looks a steal.
Elsewhere in the Racing Post, Matt Williams says there has been a "minor overreaction" to Denman's win in yesterday's Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury after the impressive winner dislodged stablemate Kauto Star as ante-post favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on the Betfair betting exchange. Amongst the bookmakers only Coral have Denman shorter but I have a strong feeling they are right. Most punters look for the best horse when trying to find the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup but look at the roll call of the winners of the supposed "Blue Riband" of National Hunt racing. Great horses like Desert Orchid, One Man and Wayward Lad all struggled at Cheltenham whereas they all racked up victories in the King George at Kempton, the race that throws up the champion jumps horse much more often than the Cheltenham event. The Gold Cup was devised as a Grand National trial when first run before the War and suits galloping stayers. Denman's owner, Harry Findlay, was undoubtedly right when he said after yesterday's victory: "I have always believed Denman can be an 8lb inferior horse to Kauto Star and still beat him at Cheltenham. I think if it comes up soft or heavy ground at Cheltenham, we are a certainty." Denman is still 5-2 for the Gold Cup with Hill's this morning. While taking the price about Sweet Kiln I strongly suggest you take those odds about Denman too. If he starts in the Festival highlight at Cheltenham next March I am confident he will win; Kauto Star or no Kauto Star.
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