Every day, the Racing Post publishes a table showing what would have happened to your money if you'd put £1 on every tip given by each newspaper's tipster this year. It's a feature that generally induces a pretty sober, reflective mood, particularly if it's any part of your job to tip the odd winner, and I see that January has, so far, proved pretty tough going for nearly all of the nation's experts.
If, on the other hand, you'd simply put your faith in the favourites, you'd have made an actual profit, albeit a pretty thin one. I don't think the market's any better at identifying winners these days (the percentage of winning favourites doesn't seem to have changed) but perhaps betting exchanges are helping to shore up the price of some favourites, making them better value.
Any road, my solution to the day's one and only card, a typically tricky meeting at Wolverhampton, is to go with a couple of likely looking favourites, Bold Diva (2.50) and Qaasi (3.20).
Bold Diva remained a maiden after nine runs on turf last year but is now two from two on the all-weather, having won at Kempton and Southwell. She carries a penalty here and is 7lb higher than for her latest success but is likely to have more in hand, as long as she holds her form.
She's ridden by racing's latest golden girl, Kirsty Milczarek, who's won on 15 of her 63 mounts so far this month and is generating a 67% profit on turnover for anyone backing her blindly. Confidence does wonders for a jockey and it will be interesting to see if Milczarek can maintain her hot streak. She's presumably aware that the stands are full of chauvinists subjecting her efforts to much greater scrutiny than they would those of, say, James Doyle, so that confidence is invaluable. It's to be hoped that trainers don't immediately stop employing her the moment she loses her claim.
Like Bold Diva, Qaasi is not hard to pick out, thanks to the brace of '1's next to his name. Those came in utterly hopeless Class 7 contests but this is another one and he runs on virtually the same terms. The worry is the quarter-mile step up in trip but it wouldn't have made any difference when he scored here three days ago and he won't be beaten if in the same mood.
Money for Wynberg
Eddie Fremantle pointed out in this morning's Observer that Wynberg was a likely mover in the market, being the first runner for trainer Simon Callaghan, who has taken over from his father, Neville, and has presumably chosen a horse with a decent chance of making a splash for him. Wynberg's owners (Mr Hinge and Mr Smallbone) were responsible for one of the gambles of the winter last week, when their Fade To Grey was smashed in from 66s to 8-1 before winning at Kempton.
Anyway, there has indeed been money for Wynberg, who opened at 8s on Betfair but is now 11-4 and vying with Bold Diva for favouritism.
2.50 Fulford wins at 9-4
Wynberg ran as though fancied, travelling well and going to the front, full of running, at halfway. The joint-favourites ran him down, though, and (unhappily for the blog) Fulford always had a couple of lengths in hand over Bold Diva. The eyecatcher was Weetfromthechaff, who ran on well from an unpromising position and could be worth a look next time back over 7f.
3.20 Mujamead wins at 2-1
Qaasi ran very free in the early stages and, although briefly looking the winner on the turn for home, was collared by Mujamead in the straight. The winner sweated up badly and touched 14s in running as he came under pressure down the back but he kept on finding more.
That ends my interest in a very poor Sunday's action. The excitement quotient should go up considerably tomorrow, when we'll have actual turf racing at Folkestone, featuring two or three horses worth taking an interest in. Tune in . . .
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