Jeremy Noseda has an astonishing 71% strike-rate (10 wins from 14 runs) at Brighton over the last five years. Remarkably, he has an even better record at Hamilton (79%) but today's best bet is at the south-coast track, where Noseda's Light Hearted should win the opening maiden.
The Newmarket trainer has won two of the last seven renewals of this race and Light Hearted (2.10) can make it three from eight. Highly tried on her racecourse debut at the Craven meeting, she finished well beaten but the company she kept that day was surely a lot better than the motley crew she'll face at Brighton. The tenth horse, who beat her a short-head at Newmarket, has since won a Goodwood maiden.
The old-timers will tell you that, for many, a favourite system used to be backing Henry Cecil's first two-year-old runner of the year. Supposedly, the Warren Place trainer tried to make a point of winning with his first juvenile when at the height of his powers.
It must have been a pretty straightforward feat to pull off in the days when the talent at his disposal was greater in both quantity and quality than it is now. Still, Kings Troop (2.30) may be able to help him do it one more time in the first at Yarmouth.
The son of Bertolini holds a couple of flashy entries later in the year and will probably not have to be that quick to beat main rival Cool Art, who looked very one-paced on his recent debut.
With Gay Kelleway in unstoppable form, Stringsofmyheart (7.50) makes most appeal on tonight's Great Leighs card. The filly may have needed her first run for three months when second to the well-backed Karmest at Beverly last time, when the surface was on the easy side for her.
Tony Paley 3.05pm Jeremy Noseda does the business at Brighton as Chris Cook expected and you can simply follow any horse he sends for an afternoon at the seaside. The other big pointer on a quiet day is that Musaalem, who has just landed some tidy bets in the 3.00 at Yarmouth, is clearly a horse to follow.
He pulled far too hard early but won with something in hand in the end and is obviously going to improve significantly for the experience. Musaalem had also been far too lit up in the early stages on his only previous run last term and though he is going to have to become more tractable to fulfill his undoubted potential he will surely win more races. Intriguingly, Musaalem was the latest selection from Kieren Fallon on his website. He has had five out of seven winners from his "gallops" tips. If you want to see what Fallon has been up to since the trial click here. I wonder if the City of London police have been logging on. They need a result after the fiasco at the Old Bailey!
4.20pm This just in on the racing wires: 'Please note in the 2.40 at York on Thursday, horse No.5 Twice Over will only run if the ground is suitable, states the trainer'. Twice Over is favourite for the Derby and now the lines to Henry Cecil's Warren Place outpost in Newmarket are buzzing as the racing press corps try to find out exactly what Cecil's concerns are. It's likely Mr Cecil would ideally want a drop more water on the track, whether naturally from the heavens or man-made with sprinklers, but the fact that trainers can simply state "will only run if the ground is suitable" can too often leave racefans scratching their heads.
I'll keep you posted. Meanwhile, I get to know the ads on the Attheraces channel fairly intimately. Most have me pressing the mute button, but the new one for Drench spring water which has just had an airing and stars Brains from Thunderbirds is surely going to be an instant classic.
4.35pm York will water if necessary. William Derby, the clerk of the course (racing speak for the man who has responsibility for the going among other things), says: "We put 5mm of water on the track yesterday and the going read 8.6 on the stick, however, it has firmed up slightly to 9.3. We are going into the meeting on good to firm ground and we are really pleased with how it looks -- we couldn't be happier. Obviously we will look at it this time tomorrow and if we feel the need to water on Wednesday night, we will if we feel it merits it." That could ease Mr Cecil's concerns. We'll keep trying to get hold of him.
6.20pm Henry Cecil has been tracked down. "He [Twice Over] hits the ground hard and the ground will need to be safe. He wouldn't want it like a road," said the Newmarket trainer.
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