11.30am New Approach back in Derby picture
Sensational news this morning as trainer Jim Bolger has announced that New Approach is now an intended runner in Saturday's Derby, as long as the ground is "on the good side of good," whatever that means.
The horse was favourite for the Derby all winter, having won the Dewhurst at Newmarket in October, but Bolger said in April that the race was not a target as far as he was concerned. "Sheikh Mohammed, Princess Haya [the Sheikh's wife and owner of New Approach] and John Ferguson [Sheikh Mohammed's bloodstock advisor] have left the horse's programme to me," he said. "At this stage, I would be more keen to go for the Irish Guineas and then the Irish Derby."
But the horse was beaten in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and again in the Irish version at The Curragh. Now, it appears that Sheikh Mohammed's team have insisted that the horse run at Epsom. The Sheikh has never won the Derby.
Officials at Epsom will be delighted by the u-turn but may have mixed feelings about laying on a big welcome for Bolger, who has publicly doubted whether winning the Derby "does all that much for a prospective stallion's career".
Today's tips
With Mick Quinlan's runners in form, I like the look of Steam Cuisine (3.30) at Carlisle. Her last three wins have been over a straight seven furlongs, like today's, and she can be forgiven her beaten effort in a Group Three on her reappearance.
And as long as we're in the forgiving vein, let's overlook the most recent effort of Maahe (4.15) at Great Leighs, where she never looked like getting involved. She should be better suited by the return to turf at Carlisle today, having previously been a close second at Catterick.
Today's best bet is Ephorus (8.15) at Thirsk. This three-year-old looks a typical improver from the Sir Michael Stoute yard and will appreciate the step up in trip to a mile and a half on this handicap debut.
Why New Approach can't win the Derby
Jim Bolger might be the first trainer ever to make himself look a complete clown by winning the Derby on Saturday. It is clear that he didn't want to run New Approach in the race, even though the horse's credentials were obvious. Instead, Bolger campaigned his charge in such a way that his Derby chance may have been ruined.
At a mile and a half, the Derby presents a serious test of stamina for any three-year-old, so long as it is run at a strong pace, as it almost always is. To win, a horse must settle through the early part of the race and conserve its energy for the long run up the home straight.
Unfortunately, there is no way to explain this to New Approach, who has been trained to be a miler. In the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket and again in the Irish equivalent nine days ago, he was sent straight to the front and asked to set a strong pace. It is completely unrealistic now to expect him to switch off at the back of a large field for as much as three-quarters of a mile. At the point in the Derby when he will be asked to win his race, New Approach will already have run a quarter of a mile further than he ever has before.
Horses learn by experience and Derby winners almost invariably have some prior experience of racing over at least a mile and a quarter. By contrast, those that have been trained to use their speed have blown out at Epsom. Since 1992, only one horse has won the Derby after racing over a trip as short as a mile that same season.
Horses of the quality of Refuse To Bend, who started favourite for the Derby after winning the 2,000 Guineas, have been well beaten when asked to make such a major step up in distance.
I can believe that New Approach has the stamina for a mile and a half. And maybe, if Bolger had run him in a traditional trial like the Dante over a mile and a quarter, his horse would have a chance of lasting home on Saturday. As it is, New Approach is likely to be exhausted long before he gets to the line, and there will only be one man to blame for that.
Of course, there have been 2,000 Guineas winners who have gone on to win the Derby -- names like Nashwan and Nijinsky come immediately to mind. Is New Approach that good? If he pulls it off, he will be an exceptional horse who has won in spite of his trainer. Either way, I'm afraid Mr Bolger will have trouble salvaging his dignity.
I'm pretty sure which outcome is more likely and, if New Approach is available at single-figure odds on Saturday morning, I'll be laying him.
Why New Approach is now a certainty for the Derby
See above.
Kudos to Greg Wood
Read here how our man predicted weeks ago what would happen with New Approach.
3.45pm Hey Nerium
Just for you, I have called Jimmy Stevenson, Leicester's clerk of the course. He says the reduced safety limit is temporary, caused by drainage work. This is the last meeting that will be affected and the safety limit will be back to 18 for their next fixture a week on Saturday.
4.50pm Single worst ride of the day so far
It was almost going to be Richard Hills for his effort on Meethaaq in the Leicester maiden just now -- this horse deserved his SP of 8-15 but Hills got him so far back and ran into so much trouble that he should have been beaten. Miraculously, he managed to reel in the clear leader and win, but for that he has Adrian McCarthy to thank.
On 33-1 shot Inquisitive Look, making her racecourse debut, McCarthy got first run and looked home and hosed. Betfair punters certainly thought so, as £9,000 was bet on Inquisitive Look at 1-100 in-running. But then McCarthy looked round for dangers, eased off for a stride or two, looked round again, started pushing once more, then looked round a third time as Hills drew alongside.
If McCarthy had just kept his head down and pushed out for the line as a professional should, he may well have held on instead of losing by a neck. Adrian McCarthy, you are hereby awarded Talking Horse's prestigious Single Worst Ride of the Day So Far.
5.55pm Jim Bolger explains
The trainer has just been on ATR to explain the reasons behind his change of mind re New Approach. Apparently, he started to think about Epsom last week as he realised the horse had come out of the Irish Guineas in good nick. Now, with the ground likely to be no faster than good, the scales have dropped from his eyes and, for the first time in six weeks, he sees the race as a realistic option.
Whatever.
More interestingly, he said Lush Lashes is definitely an intended runner in the Oaks on Friday, unless the ground gets a lot faster. She deserves to start a strong favourite. And in fairness to Bolger, few trainers can have gone to the Epsom Classics with two such classy animals.
6.10pm Leicester stewards agree with Talking Horses!
Adrian McCarthy has been given a 10-day suspension for that ride on Inquisitive Look, on the basis that he failed to ride out and could have achieved a better placing. The stewards had to admit some doubt as to whether he would have won in any case and it's hard to argue with that.
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