I'm not sure how worried punters should be about the 50% increase in non-runners over the past two years, as reported on the front page of today's Racing Post. You'd think that would make our job easier, though I can't be confident about that, having tipped a loser in a three-horse race last night. The outsider of three, always back the outsider of three.
Anyway, presumably because of widespread wet weather, there are plenty of non-runners today, including four in Salisbury's Listed race, the Upavon Fillies' Stakes. Andre Fabre's first runner at the Wiltshire track, In The Light, is still entered and is still favourite, but there doesn't seem much confidence behind her and I prefer Basque Beauty (4.05).
William Haggas is probably not quite as good a trainer as Fabre but he's carrying all before him this season and making a 30% profit on turnover for those who've backed all his runners to level stakes (anyone?).
His Basque Beauty was well backed and hosed up in an Ascot maiden last month. Today's extra two furlongs and softening ground are all in her favour and she's almost 9-2 on the leading exchange.
The main danger may be Lady Deauville, whose only two victories have come on soft. That's the most obvious reason for the support that's taken her down to 5-1 now from twice that price last night but the official going is still only 'good, good to soft in places', with occasional rain hitting the course now.
There's also been support for Dalradian (2.30) in the second division of the maiden. William Knight's two-year-old should leave behind the form of his debut seventh at Newbury, when he got upset in the stalls and faded close home. The more fancied Heliodor and Outofoil don't have anything like the same scope to improve on what they've shown.
Godolphin have been getting winners but their horses have often been overbacked in this miserable year for them and they've had eight beaten favourites in the last fortnight, so I'm taking on Stalking Shadow in the Pembroke Cup. There were clearly high expectations for this one, purchased for $1m, and he was impressive when getting off the mark last month.
Still, that was only a Thirsk maiden of doubtful quality and he is by no means certain to prove well treated. Nor is he sure to like this surface -- it was fast at Thirsk, whereas this son of Storm Cat was well beaten on heavy on his previous start.
Acrostic (3.35) is a big, ignorant type who looks a typical Luca Cumani improver. It's the next thing to a certainty that he's going to end up on a higher mark at some stage and he's likely to appreciate these conditions.
From the in-form James Bethell yard, Fossgate (5.20) can add to his two previous course wins at Beverley in their closing handicap.
3.40pm Stalking Shadow does enough
Godolphin's $1m purchase looked distinctly uneasy on the soft going for much of the race and Acrostic was traded at 1-10 in running after cruising to the front. Alas, the other horse was simply better, got back in front and held on by a neck. He'll be a lot better than this on a faster surface and is worth looking out for next time.
Frustratingly, Acrostic's handicap mark will also go up a fair bit for this defeat, but this is good form and I'd be very chary of taking him on, especially on good or softer.
Earlier, Dalradian was very disappointing, apparently failing to progress at all for that first run.
4.15pm Lady Deauville wins at 4-1
The support for Paul Blockley's runner this morning has proved bang on the money. Both Fabre's horse and Basque Beauty faded in the closing stages on going that is now "good to soft, soft in places".
Hi DrKelso. Limelight is drifting for the 5.30 but I won't be betting against her. She's been assessed on the basis of three runs at up to 7f, whereas this is 1m4f, much more in keeping with her middle-distance pedigree. It's a classic Prescott approach and, while it doesn't always come off, that makes it a non-event, betting-wise, for me. He's not in bad form -- 25% this month.
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