The biggest betting race of the day is probably the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, a 30-runner handicap in which they go 8-1 the field. By comparison with such an obvious bearpit, the Welsh National looks positively inviting, despite the presence of multiple runners from some very shrewd yards.
As expected, Over The Creek is available at double-figure odds on Betfair, thanks to his apparent status as David Pipe's second-string. But this is a yard with a history of winning big races with such horses -- Tamaribleu in the Boylesports Gold Cup was only the most recent example -- and Over The Creek (2.05) is crying out to be backed at bigger than 10-1.
I'm keeping an eye out for any jockey news, however. His intended rider, Johnny Farrelly, was prevented from riding yesterday, as he was deemed not to have recovered sufficiently from a broken ankle.
The day's other best bets are both at Wetherby. Mr Strachan (2.35) is very unlucky to be without a win over fences, having run into three classy rivals on the bounce -- L'Antartique, Tidal Bay and Nudge And Nurdle. Giving weight to Kruguyrova is no gimme either but Mr Strachan should not be second-favourite.
Earlier, Cassius Dio (12.50) is worth a potshot at much longer odds on his handicap bow for a yard that does well in such contests.
Chepstow 2.05 1st Miko De Beauchene 13-2
An emotional success in the Welsh National for a horse whose trainer, Robert Alner, remains on a ventilator in hospital after a car crash last month. Alner also runs The Listener against Denman in tomorrow's big race, the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown.
Miko De Beauchene wore down last year's winner, Halcon Genelardais, in the shadow of the post and one must feel for the runner-up, who had to shoulder top weight of 11-12 and looked about half the size of the winner.
Over The Creek was third at 10-1.
2.40 Chepstow 1st Franchoek 7-4
Franchoek wins a highly competitive renewal of Chepstow's Finale Juvenile Hurdle and will be very hard to beat in the Triumph Hurdle in March. Great credit goes to the second and third, Tatenen (making his UK debut) and Serabad, both of which should be worth following.
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